natalievotes.bsky.social
PhD student, political strategist, Pol Sci researcher & scientist-practitioner: US election law • voting rights • Latino vote • Pol Psych (intergroup relations) • quant methods
334 posts
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FINALLY someone else also knows this! I wish I could like this comment a million times!
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You know what could have predicted this? A survival analysis, which is absolutely a tool that exists within normal political science scholarship. The limitations on such a research design are data and time. Let's go, Dem researchers c'mon!!!!!
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Eh ey ey ey Eh ey
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IF ONLY SOMEONE, ANYONE, HAD WARNED US!!!!
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It started before 2013, probably in the mid 2000s, really. Those Dean folks really did not care about the naysayers and pushed the beginnings of the red-to-blue project before the state party even got behind it. It took time and effort to make CA blue. Still does!
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Shit, are the high temps going to negatively affect voter turnout?
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Yeeeahhh no. It's currently 98° today and has been above 90 for several days and will probs go to the low 100s in later summer. It was 101 at the rally last Saturday. In the winter it is 35-40 in the daytime. It's also that cold when random storms bring snow in the late spring.
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The elevation also means that the residuals of any storm that rolls through might drop the daytime high 40-50 degrees in 3 days and bring freezing rain and snow, even in April and May. I like to put my winter clothes away for good at the end of winter, tyvm.
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Absolutely not. It is horrendously dry all the time, too hot in the summer with few trees for relief and it gets too cold in the winter to be pleasant.
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I have yet to live anywhere with better weather than Santa Cruz, CA. Just an hr south of SF and you keep the fog but still get a mild summer!
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Drive and hour south to Santa Cruz and you get summer too! Don't go another hour bc you'll hit Monterey and lose the summer again.
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But truly. Pressure the NY State Dem party or local Dem parties in the boroughs. They're the ones who provide the Dem party endorsements and volunteers for these races. Manhattan Dems and Kings County Dems have websites. Google is free, y'all.
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Look, we can't celebrate Juneteenth because it's too divisive. Unlike military bases named for Confederate soldiers, which unite us all.