nicholasgrossman.bsky.social
International Relations prof at U. Illinois. Editor of Arc Digital. Author “Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery.
12,370 posts
59,348 followers
807 following
Regular Contributor
Active Commenter
comment in response to
post
How long can Israel do longer distance, accurate strikes on their own without direct US involvement? Not sure exactly, but not that long.
If they manage to cripple Iranian air defenses and can fly in to drop less sophisticated bombs? Decently longer.
comment in response to
post
I haven't heard, one way or the other, but that's a good question.
comment in response to
post
After their first launch failed to get through, they brought out some pretty big guns for the second one.
But I take your point. They didn't fire all their best stuff in the second launch, and like any competent military tactician, would strategically hold big cards for later, if necessary.
comment in response to
post
Maybe. I think that's plausible.
But still, the fact that either are live possibilities...
comment in response to
post
Gah! I'm tired. That was sloppy.
Thank you, I appreciate it.
Updated:
comment in response to
post
Who doesn’t sometimes?
Perhaps one of the biggest divides is how frequently, to what extent, and whether or not the person thinks it’s bad.
comment in response to
post
At no point do I argue that Iran's nuclear program was dormant or stagnant, and in the article I note that they've ramped up enrichment.
I did suggest I'm more inclined to believe Israeli military/intel over Netanyahu himself, and wanted to acknowledge his years-long record of similar warnings.
comment in response to
post
More detailed write up of Israel's attack on Iran here:
comment in response to
post
More detailed write up here:
comment in response to
post
Israel has had nuclear weapons since the late 1960s.
comment in response to
post
Right. Three possible options, and Trump ruined the best one.
comment in response to
post
I won't take full responsibility, but I apologize for my contributions.
comment in response to
post
Older than he was before, in fact.
comment in response to
post
Re: "full-scale," who knows.
But I would be very surprised if Iran takes a de-escalatory path in response. The attack is too big, too widespread. No state would let it slide.
comment in response to
post
Yup, that was my point. We're on the same page now.
comment in response to
post
No. Israel has never done this kind of strike, nor a similar one at this scale. Literally never.
comment in response to
post
Yup
comment in response to
post
comment in response to
post
I, and many others, said in 2018 that Trump letting Iran out of nuclear restrictions in exchange for nothing would end in war or a nuclear Iran. And here we are.
comment in response to
post
The last thing someone who believes in convenient fictions wants is to be confronted with factual reality.
comment in response to
post
Yeah...
That skepticism was right the first dozen or so times, over the course of years. But not this time.
comment in response to
post
What an odd alternative universe these folks inhabit.
There were two ceasefires, both brokered by the Biden admin, Egypt, and Qatar. The second one lasted a few months into the current Trump administration, collapsing shortly after Trump called for US ownership of Gaza and ethnic cleansing there.
comment in response to
post
Indeed.
comment in response to
post
No. No we are not.
Here's me on that back-and-forth: www.arcdigital.media/p/is-the-mid...
comment in response to
post
Who wrote "unprovoked" here?
www.arcdigital.media/p/is-the-mid...
comment in response to
post
Seriously.
Through this probably would've pulled me back in regardless.
comment in response to
post
First, what's the evidence of "days away from finalizing 8 nukes"?
Second, that's not a response. Responses are reactions to something someone does to you.
comment in response to
post
With state use of force, there's always a possibility of overreach without a good plan.
That said, I'd guess joint, related goals of weakening Iran and potentially dragging the US into a regime change war.
comment in response to
post
Yes, that was always ridiculous, but now proven incontrovertibly so.
comment in response to
post
<sigh>
comment in response to
post
Color me skeptical on the claim that Iran was planning to produce multiple bombs in a few days. As far as I know, that's beyond their capacity, even if they wanted to.
But on closing airports and expecting retaliation, yes.
comment in response to
post
It's not like Osirak.
Iraq's nuclear program was considerably less advanced, and less dispersed. Plus Iraq's ability to cause damage via direct attacks and proxies was decently lower than Iran's is today, even after Israeli operations weakened Hezbollah and other Iranian allies.
comment in response to
post
Seriously.
Though this probably would have dragged me out of break regardless.
comment in response to
post
A violent assault on Congress that put all of them in personal danger only sort of motivated them—and only some of them at that—so I share your skepticism. Unfortunately.