pbleic.bsky.social
MD/PhD, Academia => Biotech => Pharma/HealthIT => PE/VC. Immunology, medicine,dermatology, clinical trials, EDC, RWE, AI
137 posts
174 followers
314 following
Regular Contributor
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The absurdity of doing a randomized efficacy trial for the DPT childhood vaccine is so clear. To perform such a trial, you would need to power it to show a reduction in the incidence of a disease. Are we to bring back tetanus (from zero) to test DPT in a placebo-controlled trial? Diphtheria?
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Touche
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Except in pregnant women and people undergoing urologic procedures.
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You took 20 courses in physics and don’t understand why this is a major story? Why the Webb telescope has confirmed the Hubble tension? How this is related to the origin of the universe, particle physics and many of the potentially practical uses of modern physics?
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Somewhat akin to the ubiquitous “synthetic data” craze.
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This does NOT apply to this outbreak. The R0 and growth rate stated is for totally susceptible populations. It is much lower in partially or mostly vaccinated populations. Avoiding exaggeration in PH communications will reduce skepticism.
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The slight non-significant reduction in autism is likely an artifact of confounding variables (as the more stringent endpoint seemed to show). In any case, it is no more than a hypothesis that would require substantial testing, likely in a(n) (unethical) logistically challenging randomized study.
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As mentioned, I am somewhat familiar with the literature on autism and we are totally aligned on this. I was simply trying to make sure that a non-expert reader didn't walk away with the impression that MMR vaccines might protect against autism, however slightly.
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BTW, when they used a stricter endpoint (2 autism diagnoses), the AHR was 0.99 (0.88–1.11). Table 3 looks at other sources of residual bias, even with a fully adjusted model. While p-values aren’t strictly needed here, the confidence intervals show the precision of estimates.
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Their analysis used adjusted hazard ratios and CIs to account for confounding factors like healthcare access or parental education, which can bias who receives vaccines. This isn't a simple comparison of one population vs. another without sampling.
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Right. For lay people it should be - it showed no difference. Exactly my first point.
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A better way to say this:
The study did not find strong evidence of an effect, though the results suggest a possible slight negative trend that could also be due to chance.
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If it had come out the opposite at 1.05 with a 95% CI of 0.97 to 1.15, I highly doubt you or the authors would have said “showed a slight increase of autism in MMR immunized children.” No study could reasonably expected to give a 1.000 result. That is why we apply statistical analysis.
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Agree with your main point completely. But the study did not show “a slight increase in non-MMR.” The 95% confidence interval included 1. It showed no effect.
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Mexican drug cartels.
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Watching at home I heard a loud “Ewwww” emerge from the worldwide collective audience at that moment.
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Many years ago Hulu did the same thing in a tense finish to the Super Bowl. I switched to YoutubeTV the next day and never looked back. Amateurs.
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Wow. After you see the movie you will realize how off the mark that assessment was.
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If someone is winning, someone is losing.
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Having exactly that discussion here. Ps - there is a rumor that the new JB will be announced at the Oscars. Movie coming in 2027.
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Sorry for the repost - I accidentally deleted the original.
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Hope you listened, because reading the words is just not the same.
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It’s up.
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….
Still, tomorrow's going to be another working day
And I'm trying to get some rest
That's all I'm trying just trying to get some rest.
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This all feels like the unexplained preamble to the recent movie Civil War, set 15-18 yrs in the future.
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This is not "radical transparency." While it may "improve efficiency," it allows the agency to eliminate public comment when it wants to. Public comment is where experts can help an agency see what it didn't think of or got wrong, and correct rules before they are finalized. Possible impact on FDA:
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One error in Paul Offit's interview. According to Stat, the FDA and CDC are going to participate in the WHO meeting virtually.
www.statnews.com/2025/02/24/u...
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Add in the egg shortage for vaccine production, and this is really horrible news.
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The interview with Paul Offit does include some (apparently) incorrect information. The CDC and FDA will be represented (virtually) at the WHO vaccine strain meeting per Stat's reporting (unless this has changed) : www.statnews.com/2025/02/24/u...
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Oh look. NPR took the same stats I did and said the odds are zero. You should definitely go after them with your hair splitting argument that it isn’t “zero.” BTW - the odds are NEVER zero until after the date has passed.
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Top 12 has a lot of red states on it.
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Screenshot from a tweet by Andy Bloch on another platform.
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Oh yes. You are so right. Not zero. My bad. 0.003878%. Almost zero. Very helpful distinction.
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www.nature.com/articles/d41...
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bsky.app/profile/ewon...
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Side note: Fortunately, the risk of the asteroid has been revised to zero after more observations.
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Can you imagine diplomats at the State Department and agents at the CIA or FBI having to report their 5 “accomplishments” this week to Musk??? The government is not Twitter, and the tactics he used there are a disaster when used at the biggest government in the world.
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People with chronic diseases are more at risk when they contract any contagious disease. But the chronic disease doesn’t go on the death certificate as the cause of death. The infection does. Because it wasn’t the chronic disease that caused their death.
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And this is a surprise?
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Perfect response. 🤣🤣🤣