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perwagner.bsky.social
Economist and data scientist. Find my substack here: https://perwagner.substack.com/ The only sure way to have peace is surrender. Lets not do that. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpVvgNs8tqI
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responsiblestatecraft.org/coalition-of...

Like I've said before, if you have any doubts about climate change, just go to a super-boring insurance conference and listen to the super-boring panels where they dryly talk about the growing threat of disasters so catastrophic and unpredictable in scope they simply cannot be insured at any price.

40% of Danes says "yes" in a new opinion poll if Denmark, in the current geo-pol environment, should work with our European allies to establish a nuclear defense. Including building and storing nuclear weapons. www.berlingske.dk/www.berlings...

Over at "logicofwar.com" (www.logicofwar.com/air-defense-...) (subscriber only), Anders Puck makes the important observation on the current Israel vs. Iran air war, that we should be careful not to make a 1-to-1 between this war and a potential war between Europe and Russia. Despite Israel being

A generation of US, EU and Chinese policymakers who convinced themselves that there are no military solutions are not psychologically equipped to cope with leaders who think there are

This is the kind of Norwegian moves we need more of

Real world: - Trump team trying to create a Reichstag moment. - Trump telling military audience that LA is hellhole full of "animals" - Officials in Calif trying both to calm things down, and stand up PUNDIT world: - Is it smart politics? - Is Gavin running? - Doesn't Trump look strong!

My take on the disturbing developments in California over the past week, and what may be coming next:

open.substack.com/pub/davekeat...

I am very concerned when people say the soldiers will resist Trump's pressure. Since Huntington, American officers have been told that it's their task to stay out of politics and just focus on the "how" when politicians tell them what the goal is.

Had CIA's very own @michaeldweiss.bsky.social down to the bunker to discuss 🕷️🕸️ and a lot more. Like & subscribe 🍵 youtu.be/k8KTt5JbqOU

Anders Puck is always worth listening to. youtu.be/E9VgTM9d1t8?...

Ok, so Denmark goes for nasam for medium range ground based air defense. NASAM depends on us missiles, amram, the same ones used for air to air. The article does say this is temporary until a permanent solution can be found, but it is not entirely clear if they talk about www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...

Italian exports to out-of-the-way places like Kyrgyzstan (lhs) and Armenia (rhs) remain very high. These are obviously transshipments where the ultimate destination is Russia. It's insane that 3 years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine this continues. The EU is truly a free-for-all without rules...

Regarding the Ukrainian operation "SpiderWeb": it took 1.5 years or so to prepare, so how "scalable" will it be? I mean, that is a long pipeline, so can that time period be cut down so they can do this sort of thing again and again? Or will it just be a one-off?

Somehow I don’t think the strikes over the last week are retribution for operation spiderweb…

⚡️📊 52% of Ukrainians oppose any territorial concessions, even if it prolongs the war — KIIS survey. Only 10% are willing to accept Russia’s “peace plan,” while 82% are firmly against it.

Fremragende nyhed. Digitaliseringsministeriet skifter til Linux og Libre Office.

youtu.be/MPXs2wDv4Kc?... Perun is back.. About operation Spiderweb

And it is important to keep in mind, but that the US would do exactly the with equipment and ammunition that we rely on...

moved to middle east... (so in order to protect Israel, while they are massively bombing Gaza.. so basically, let me translate it to you : Trump admin is literally depriving a nation that is attacked to help a nation that is now a pure aggressor)

Timothy Garton Ash: "The West,as a geopolitical actor,no longer exists.At least for as long as Donald Trump is president, but probably longer ... It is not just Trump,it is also the United States.So we can have no confidence,that at the end of four years,the US just comes back,and even if it did

France and Belgium, the two largest buyers of russian liquefied natural gas (LNG), are refusing to support the European Commission's proposed plan to ban gas supplies from russia www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/202...

Probably the best, most accurate and detailed count of the Russian looses from operation Spiderweb I have seen by Tom Cooper: open.substack.com/pub/xxtomcoo... Includes thoughtful evaluation of the hits and their consequences for Russia.