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robfordmancs.bsky.social
Politics Professor, University of Manchester. Author of "Brexitland" and "The British General Election of 2019" My Substack, "The Swingometer", is here: https://swingometer.substack.com/ https://www.robertford.net/
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“Every political movement becomes self-parody once it loses momentum.” @benansell.bsky.social on the strange death of the Rejoin campaign. www.prospectmagazine...

APPARENTLY IT'S HOTTER THAN GREECE, LISA

"I hear you're thinking of being on the same side as Nigel Farage. Have you considered being on an even worse side than Nigel Farage?"

The next panel of our free, online conference is now starting! @delivering4crawley.bsky.social‬, Frances Foley and @robfordmancs.bsky.social will discuss the electoral system. Is replacing First Past the Post desirable or possible?‪ Sign up to watch along 👉 www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution....

Not an original point but worth saying again - there is not a single element in this picture that identifies any of these folks as law enforcement agents. No badges, no uniforms, no vests. Out of context it just looks like a bunch of random guys are kidnapping a mayoral candidate.

Fascism

For the first time this year, Labour is making up some ground in the polling average - now back to where they were before the locals. Reform lead by 4.7%, down from a 7.7% peak. RFM: 28.7% (+14.0) LAB: 24.0% (-10.7) CON: 17.8% (-6.5) LDM: 13.8% (+1.3) electionmaps.uk/polling

I want to give @rcolvile.bsky.social credit for this (genuinely, no irony or snark). If we want BSky (or online discourse on these topics more generally) to be constructive, then being able to correct and move on has to be encouraged and recognised.

"Parties of government have to operate in an environment of trade-offs. Populist radical right parties don't even have to acknowledge trade-offs let alone engage with them, so you can just never win that fight." @robfordmancs.bsky.social on how mainstream parties react to the populist radical right

Not everything is getting worse. Also: modern medicine is amazing. People who could cure children of diseases like this would have been worshipped like gods a few centuries ago.

9 probable errors in 60 seconds is quite a remarkable outcome

Really enjoyed reading this wide range of different responses to my recent @opendemocracy.net piece on compulsory voting & inequality www.opendemocracy.net/en/readers-t...

Paper on the ideology gender gap with Eurobarometer data from @gesis.org by @nennstielr.bsky.social and @hudde.bsky.social . Most interesting finding: while young women are becoming more left-wing in 11 countries, in 5 of them young men are also becoming more right-wing (DK, FI, SE, FR and LT)

Shocked (not).

Stephen is right here, and it coincides with "Public services were terrible" being almost entirely erased from the "Why did we lose so badly?" debate.

Gibraltar CM personally fact-checking the bad actors.

I think this is a great heuristic. I like using AI for light duty coding stuff because it’s easy to validate the output. If you can’t validate relatively easily…

Lot of lawyers going to make lots of money out of AI and the people who foolish trust its answers.

I don't see how representative democracy can work if representatives live in permanent fear of violence against themselves and their families.

Explaining why #energy prices are high and how clean power will bring them down can't be done in a soundbite. Thanks @Bylines.scot for this podcast and write up. bylines.scot/environment/...

And an MP which the official opposition is actively trying to persuade to join their own party

What outcomes would most give Labour defectors since GE2024 a more positive impression of the government? Some areas of difference: small boats for Reform defectors; poverty, taxing the rich & Gaza for left defectors. Some unity: NHS and energy bills. (caveat: prompted list!)

Higham Ferrers (North Northamptonshire) Deferred Election Result: ➡️ RFM: 27.5% 🌳 CON: 23.4% 🌍 GRN: 22.2% 🌹 LAB: 11.1% 🙋 Ind: 9.0% 🔶 LDM: 6.9% 1x Reform & 1x Conservative WIN. *Reform would have won both seats if they hadn't stood 3 candidates in a 2 member ward.

Tomorrow, 15 people charged with gambling related offenses linked to last year’s general election appear at Westminster Magistrates’ Court from 10 a.m. Most people will have forgotten this but not @robfordmancs.bsky.social, @psurridge.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social and me! #BGE2024Book