stephenfidler.bsky.social
Journalist. Former correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times and Reuters.
74 posts
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Is that ‘rowing’ as in arguing?
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Agree with this. Governments often prefer to feed stuff to lobby in the UK or White House hacks in US because they can’t be experts in every field, and hence less informed pushback. Brexit debate was almost completely intermediated in the UK press through the lobby and so wasn’t properly examined
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I think he’s made a living turning socks into coat hangers
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You might say Rest in Peace but I don’t think she’d like resting in peace.
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Agreed on the increase in exports from Asia, some replacing China, as I mentioned in my thread. These are US stats. Unsure of volumes of US-UK gold trade or of any reason they would have shrunk permanently post-2017.
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Clearly part of the picture is some shifting from China to other countries, particularly in Asia.
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Original here. In Trump world, imports are bad. Maybe UK isn’t important enough to bother about.
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/02...
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The only serious argument was political. My question always was, for the economic costs we would inevitably pay (with a smaller than otherwise economy and therefore lower public spending), what was the probability that UK decision-making would improve from its low base post-Brexit? 20% max?
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Peek
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And this.
“What’s so bad about deflation?”
www.wsj.com/world/china/...
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If Trump carries out his pledges then it's hard to see how inflation remains under control. The US stock market has been on a high, probably on promises of tax cuts and deregulation. But how long could this last in the face of higher LT rates and therefore borrowing costs for companies? 9/9
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Keeping ST rates artificially low wouldn't bring down LT rates but send them higher because inflation worries would get worse. A politicised Fed could hypothetically buy bonds to keep LT rates down, but that would melt down the bond market. "Monetising the deficit" would risk runaway inflation. 8/9
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4. Pressuring the Federal Reserve: under normal circumstances, the Fed would curb inflationary pressures by raising interest rates. But Trump would go ape. Would the Fed be the one US institution that would maintain its independence? Anyway Trump gets to pick his own Fed president next year. 7/9
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3. Shrinking the labour supply: Deporting immigrants and stopping others from getting in will shrink the workforce. That will likely push up wages, not bad, but then the companies that employ them will try to raise prices to preserve profit margins. Result: more inflation. 6/9
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2. Huge tax cuts that balloon the federal deficit = more government bonds. More supply leads bond prices to fall. Elon's charged with cutting government spending but markets will believe that when they see it. Announcements of unfunded tax cuts tanked the UK bond market in 2022. (Thanks, Liz.) 5/9
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People are starting to worry that Trump's pledges will ignite inflation. Why? Four policies that, if enacted, would hammer bond markets. 1. Tariffs. Trump seems to think that foreigners pay them. No, Americans do. The price of imports goes up or Americans pay higher prices for US products. 4/9
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As Krugman says LT rates matter to people because of car loans, mortgages etc. They rise as bond prices fall and they fall when bondholders sell, often because they are worried about inflation. (Bonds pay a fixed annual interest rate and inflation reduces the real value of these payments.) 3/9
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I've been wondering when this shoe would drop. US interest rate developments reverberate worldwide. 2/9
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Now to find the other two.
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Ha. If you know anyone who did go to an approved school I’d be *very* interested in chatting to them!
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Uh oh. Dangling modifier.
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Peggy hi!
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Is there another chapter on what the hell to do about it?
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This is quite persuasive
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My view on this is that, while the Mail’s elegant variations suggest the reporter struggles with monologophobia, the usage at least doesn’t convey the reporter’s view of wallabies. On the other hand, “piebald buffoons” betrays the author’s anti-panda bias.
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Well knock me down with a feather. It’s absolutely the last thing I expected to happen.