sweetsixstring.bsky.social
Love the Habs, Red Sox & Patriots! I have spent my life studying sabermetrics and applying them to sports. My passion as child was to live long enough to see the Red Sox & Patriots win - obviously loved 2001 to 2018. Habs/Sox looking like they are back!
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Discussion Master
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Runner gets 3 ft in either direction from the basepath - which is defined as a direct path from the runner to the next base one a tag is in the process of being attempted. Toro jumped & turned in air, but did not deviate at all from path he was running at all.
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Sox offer to Soto was 15 yrs - $700M. That dwarfs the Devers contract savings by $550M! They were also 7 yrs $190M to Max Fried and supposedly willing to go up with deferrals according to Joel Sherman. So "dumping salary" as priority 1 does not fit actions last winter/this year.
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Agree. Salary dump doesn't fit facts. If the Sox wanted to exchange/ dump salary, they could have offered/signed Bregman for the 5yrs/30M he wanted & traded Devers early. Devers went far beyond refusal- calling out GM "do your job & trade for 1B" - everything "I" - no I in team.
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The veto certainly changed history. The Bucky Dent homer & the Schiraldi melt down/Buckner grounder would not have happened! Might have also changed what happened between 2004 and 2018.
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Assumption that like most businesses, Sox have a budget that can be reallocated. Breslow said it repeatedly in presser. I see no actions supporting salary dump. Devers forced this issue for months. Spending included extending Crochet, signing Breggy, going hard after Soto & Fried as said by both.
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Not sure how you can say nothing - they have $20M to spend for next 3yrs then $30M for 4yrs plus some decent prospects. Assuming they have fixed budget and will spend $ saved, they have internal solutions at DH and spending on pitching/RHB/D will help record.
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Does it really matter if you are 9-19 or 11-17 in the big picture? Not a WS contender. Not sure how you can measure impact of attitude & culture? Are you suggesting it is irrelevant and Devers comments/attitude had zero impact on team? Most underperforming teams have culture type issues.
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Devers had an incredible May .356, .468 OBP, .606 SLG, 1.074 OPS, wRC+ 197. We went 11-17. If he had those same numbers in June/July/August and we went 11-17 each month would that be good (33- 51 for 3 months)? That is my point. It is team game about a team, not one person.
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I agree with Breslow! Sox only did .500 with Devers. Sox certainly can do better than .500 going forward. The Red Sox were 11-17 in May with Devers raking! The White Sox were also 11-17 in May. Hard to do much worse.
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And Schwarber came back from serious hamstring injury and learned 1B on the fly, putting a valiant effort into it even though he was not very good at 1B because it was best for the team! www.mlb.com/redsox/news/...
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They found a taker! I seem to be one of the few excited. Did well in terms of getting rid of $30M+ * 8yrs & got some decent potential back. They needed to get rid of a LHB. If we spend the $ of salary saved on pitching/RHB who plays D, it is good move. i.e. sign Bregman a great role model for kids
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No cutoff man in the proper place anyway - should have been pitcher Wilson. Not sure exactly why he was on the 1st base side at the back of the mound. He should have been cutting it off or backing up home. Perfect example of poor fundamentals all around!
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yes he did and he again, he did not have even the slightest chance to get the runner. Not sure why that isn't an error. Duran got an error last night for a throw home that was not nearly as bad but hit the runner.
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If it keeps going like this, we will win 40 to 36 and will not have to bat in the bottom of the 9th! :)
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Couldn't agree more. If it is about using the players who give us the best chance of winning each game, which Cora and Breslow keep stating they are doing, Campbell is terrible at 2B. This impacts one run games. He has missed starting or turning DPs often which does not even show up as an error.
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Did he miss by about 20 feet to right?
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If they could get something, they should do it. DHs who hit are easy to find & we could use a RHB. We could add much more value for >$30M. By any kind of value metric (performance per dollar salary), Devers is near MLB bottom every yr - 542 on this 2025 list. www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings...
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Duran, Devers & Abreu 3 best hitters but back to back to back? Then 3 RHB in a row at end. Brewers brought in LH reliever to face Duran/Devers 3 times in the same game. Also having Devers up next, limits what they do with Duran's speed at times. Maybe Campbell to 2 hole? (RHB options are limited)
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Agree very good for Demi! I think Laine would really drag him & Demidov down 5 on 5 which is where Toews has all his value at this point (FO & 5/5 & PK). However, Toews would really help some young guys take next step i.e. with Demi plus Dach! or Heineman? or Newhook? maybe he could help JRoy???
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IMO perfect solution to help Kapanen/Beck/Xjekai transition as all have potential but do not stand out as 2/3 C in AHL yet. All could use more AHL development time. All could learn so much on how to play 5 on 5 center role in NHL from Toews. Then when young guys play better than Toews, they play.
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IMO it should be plan A if he is willing to come! His leadership/grit/winning attitude/experience would be huge. Right kind of guy to fit in - not a lot ego in his prime for all he accomplished. His 5 on 5 skill/knowledge/experience is what this team needs - they need to play better 5 on 5.
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Strong YES! Advanced stats are the opposite of Laine - a very strong 5 on 5 player through out his career. Only CF% below 50 was 49.1 in his last yr: on a terrible team. His FO % is A+++ - 63.1% in his last year. That we can get him on a 1 or 2 year deal without losing any assets is a huge
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We so need to break up L L Duran and Devers back to back. That is the 3rd time today they brought in a lefty to face them (one time it was one batter early to face Rafaela but clearly because Duran and Devers following). I am not a fire Cora guy but that is bad managing.
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Definitely sucks. Trying to pull a positive out it, it may have "forced" things that could help next few years. We still have a chance to build something special over next few years. Probably impacts Breggy's opt out in a huge way (i.e. he may not opt out) & Mayer gets lots of MLB playing time.
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Think they should fire another manager! That made absolutely no sense at all. Raffy run means absolutely nothing. IW sets up DP with Abreu who is terrible against LHP up. If we pinch hit, they get Abreu out of game, hurt our D, use up another player, etc. It was like they wanted to lose...
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Worked out this time, but 3 L in a row when they are all your good hitters is bad plan against good teams. Really should put someone in 2 hole that bats R & that can take pitches, hit & run, take a walk to get on base, etc. to maximize havoc Duran creates on basepaths. Campbell if back on track?
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Yes Campbell to WooSox & call up Mayer. However, Mayer should be SS. H has very limited reps at 2B in minors & it is not the future. We are asking for trouble as he learns & mistakes cost games. He should play SS. Story has played 2B before (and well). Platoon Story/Hamilton platoon 2B.
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Love the attitude! We need guys that want to play & win but also that accept that when they do not perform or win, changes need to be made. That does not have to mean DFA but it could be a more limited role i.e. Story platooning with Hamilton at 2B and calling up Mayer! Perform & we will adjust!
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He got his wish in a tie game: certainly did not earn higher leverage opportunities. If there is one thing I am critical of with the Sox this year, they not dealing with vets & using much of an "earned opportunities" approach (i.e. Trevor Story and others in order from 5 to 9).
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And Hamilton with 2 really, really good DP turns at critical points: the one to end the game as well as with Soto up and 2 on, 1 out in 3rd. Doubt Campbell would have turned either which could have opened the door to lot more trouble. These kind of things are the difference in close games.
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Another key point for Habs: an expensive FA C is not a panacea! 2017-2018 Leafs had 105 points with young studs Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Reilly plus Kadri, Zach Hyman & others. Spending a fortune on FA center Tavares plus other veteran moves created salary cap issues with no results.
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Not sure what metrics you are looking at? JBJ had DRS in CF of 16 in 2014, 2 in 2015 (only 224 innings), 14 in 2016, and 14 in 2017. Other than 1st year, he always had well above average fielding metrics except in limited sample his first year. See attached chart of his career from Fangraphs.
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LOL. A little bit of recency bias! :) Last year on May 19th he had a .555 SLG and 9 HR in 11 fewer games - compared to .494 SLG at the start of the day today. This year he also has better protection with Bregman hitting behind him.
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And Rafaela needs to get the bunt down or move the runner over with no outs. Repeated failure to do the fundamentals is causing all these 1 run losses, nothing to do with luck.
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Has been a mess on D and O for a month! Mayer at 2B does not fix this issue. Are we going to keep running Story with 39 wRC+ & 31% K rate over the last month out there? We can't wait two plus years for Story's contract to expire! Mayer is obviously the go forward solution at SS. Why not now?
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Devers below average but not the worst in MLB. He was -2.6 on Fangraphs last year - compare to -2.5 for Campbell so Campbell is as bad at 2B as Devers was at 3B last year. Bregman over Campbell at a critical position up the middle (2B way more touches than 3B) more than offsets Devers.
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Bregman played 2B for Astros in 2016, 2017 and 2018, plus a lot SS from 2016 to 2019. Campbell is below average fielder (-2.5 on Fangraphs). 2B/SS D is much more important than 3B & CF. Story's D numbers are below league average (-0.9 on Fangraphs). D at SS and 2B is more critical than 3B/CF.
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Mayer obviously the long-term SS. I would do it now with Story's terrible offense - worse this year but last few years bad. Story backup SS/2B for rest of year. If Breggy opts out, lots of options next yr - Story if can figure out hitting again, Campbell if he can improve D & Casas back, Grissom
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Spent a lot of time looking at numbers. These changes would improve many current/next year issues: Devers 3B (especially with Breggy opt out looming), Bregman 2B, Mayer SS, Campbell 1B, Anthony LF, Duran CF, Abreu RF. This is better D (2B D more impact than 3B D), 7 good hitters, + DH options.
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Spent a lot of time looking at numbers. These changes would improve many current/next year issues: Devers 3B (especially with Breggy opt out looming), Bregman 2B, Mayer SS, Campbell 1B, Anthony LF, Duran CF, Abreu RF. This is better D (2B D more impact than 3B D), 7 good hitters, + DH options.
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Makes a lot of sense! We moved Devers because of below average D at 3B but Campbell is below average D at 2B, a more important D position. Opens up a lot of options. How about Devers back at 3B/Bregman to 2B - would improve D at 2B and covers 3B next year with Bregman's opt out looming!
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Agree! However, I don't think we are approaching it the right way. Instead of trying to plug holes and make small moves of mismatched pieces, I think we need to start with big picture and put above average players in the right places and let others battle/adapt for the remaining spots.
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Start with next year and work backwards. This has to happen before next spring so no sense avoiding it! Sooner could help now. Need to make tough decisions to get our internal house in order before trying to plug holes from outside. Anthony LF/Mayer SS then work backwards. Story/Rafaela to bench.
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It is nice to hear another perspective. I tend to be biased to Habs prospects I follow closely. Dobes very athletic with upside but he loses his net/overplays. League catches up. MSL even lost confidence and he was only playing in back to backs. Think he needs to play a lot to really develop.
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Goalies often need time? Monty was 25 first yr in Mtl: .891 save % & had showed less at both NHL/AHL than Primeau. Ditto Charlie Lindgren who was still in Mtl at 26. Primeau was OK last yr but lost confidence early yr when Habs D coverage was terrible. What if same thing hits Dobes' next yr?
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Can't see Primeau signing new contract with no chance at NHL even if role was AHL starter. Only 25 and showed enough last year at NHL/AHL this yr. Would have to clear waivers also. Could Dobes back to AHL with Fowler work? Dobes showed potential but needs more playing time then he was getting.
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Very good move! Liked your take about respect. Perhaps this will show Devers he is respected but preferable way would have been to try internally first, before publicly. Liked your take that they tried to placate him in Feb. In hindsight, meeting should have happened after Devers Feb presser.
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Not enough words allowed to properly/fully state my point! Gold gloves in OF is key point! Won OF gold gloves but still switched to 3B where he was not the greatest fielder to allow Griffey/Foster to play with Geronimo in CF and no room at 2B/1B with Morgan/Perez! Attitude needed for a great team!
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Well done! Kovacevic was also pending UFA, since signing a 5 yr 20 million. Would not be a good contract for the Habs. Hughes had 3 young RD to be evaluated + Savard. Hope he stays the course of taking risk & tough decisions to try to move the needle, not a vicious cycle of just making playoffs.
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Pete Rose played ball too. Not the greatest fielder but did not seem to have a problem with wining rookie of year at 2B, switching to LF, then RF, then 3B in 1975 when he was 35 yrs old so George Foster and Ken Griffey could play (one of the greatest teams ever), then to 1B at age 38.