wertwhile.bsky.social
Civil rights attorney. COYS.
1,466 posts
4,591 followers
392 following
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Personally I think the Alaska system is a really good system that marries the benefits of RCV while reducing cognitive load on the electorate. Initial round of FPTP primary -> 4 candidates in the general -> RCV in the general.
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Yeah it's just that the reverse might not be true, wouldn't be shocked if there are a lot of Zohran Brad 1-2 ballots.
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Still waiting on more (any) polls that show how Brad does vs Cuomo head to head compared to Zohran but I think a lot of people are going to need to consider Brad ahead of Zohran when they hadn't been.
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Before. June 5-9.
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I assume a good number are exhausted not to Cuomo but yeah.
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My understanding is Marist in the field and they were responsive to my request on this last time so I hope so.
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I agree that high turnout is good for Cuomo but I don't think high early vote turnout means high turnout
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It was also the case in 2014 for de Blasio though. I actually think the singularly most encouraging development this year was Hochul firing 2000 corrections officers for a wildcat strike. That’s how you have to handle it when they use their most powerful tool.
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I almost always say circuit or state and authority type I want more specifically
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I don’t know enough about the underlying engineering but the requirement to cite the link for support seems to make it a lot better.
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On ChatGPT you can click deep research, don’t know what’s available by paid tier, and it goes out to the web for around 15-20 minutes. In my experience the hallucinations go way down when you use it plus it cites to the link for each thing which helps a lot.
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Deep research is great for legal research and legal research easily passes the is it verifiable test. Go to the case and see if it says what it says.
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This book drives me crazy because the rhymes have terrible meter. So many kids books these days think you can just make the end rhymes happen and ignore you have to have meter.
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It literally has a live updating banner at the top
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Z has good shoe game though!
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the 1% is literally just the bottom of the mayoral ballot that probably doesn't matter and I'll have Zellnor above Brad but again doesn't matter because Z will go out before Brad.
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This is what I was getting at here. There's obviously a Cuomo skeptical set of New York Jews (think Bloomberg endorsement/UES) who are defaulting to Cuomo and they should be encouraged to rank Brad first at the very least imo. www.natesilver.net/p/can-anyone...
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Oh for sure. I'm basically saying Waymo > human > TSLA right now.
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One reason I think Waymos are seemingly safer for pedestrians is they drive the speed limit.
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I agree with this too! Industry not professional services.
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I just don’t think that nonprofit or academic experience or even law firm work should be given advantage over relevant private sector experience at a bank or consulting company basically and it definitely was.
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Gonna run into some constitutional issues with this court too
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Andrew Cuomo is Donald Trump, a narcissist with daddy issues, except that Trump's dad was a Nazi and Cuomo's dad had an immigrant story. It's the one true point of difference between them.
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Andrew Cuomo was governor when crime spiked in 2020 and 2021! Andrew Cuomo let the subways fail so spectacularly it became a massive news story but he was such an asshole to Andy Byford, who was doing a good job fixing it, that he left for London instead.
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In 2017, when Jewish cemeteries in New York were being vandalized, he flew to Israel, rather than focus state resources on protecting New York Jews. I made this point internally because I found it offensive but instead they just made up business reasons to go to have the state pay for some of it.
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The key thing to understand is that it's all performance. He carefully wanted to be seen doing stuff. He'd fly places to shovel snow, he raced de Blasio to Times Square when somebody drove into people. When he thought cameras wouldn't be somewhere, he stopped caring.
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Or put another way: through week 23 of the year, average NSA claims in 2024 were 218k and this year it's 230k
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I mean in weeks 4-19 or so claims ran much higher this year than 2024 and 2023 so even though we're following the previous seasonal pattern right now, it didn't follow it earlier this year. Does that make that time period look worse?
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Boy I dont know. bsky.app/profile/econ...
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My issue with the residual seasonality claim is that 23/24 didn’t have the same level of claims through winter and early spring. What would a chart of aggregate claims through this week look like?
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I have one big question with this data which is that given home ownership rate is much higher among high wage earners/bosses, if using the same CPI deflator for everybody distorts its ability to represent reality.
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inflation is cool, employment is slowing, nominal gdp slowing, interest rates are crushing the housing market. If not for tariffs they'd definitely be cutting rightly and tariffs will cause the cost of goods to go up but also they've borked demand too.
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endorsements matter a lot in primaries. bsky.app/profile/dbro...
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Anyway this is about the opposite of what it would take to find a consensus alternative bsky.app/profile/c-so...
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And yet they still don't have a 3MMA option