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zecsaky.bsky.social
Senior research fellow CER @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social. Mostly EU stuff, sprinkled with some democracy & Central Europe. Past lives Freedom House, EUI, Bloomberg.
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The headline is misleading, & as long as RU forces are tied down in Ukraine it's v unlikely that Putin cd mount a large-scale attack on NATO territory in the north as well. But if Putin defeats UA & can turn his attention elsewhere, & Trump isn't committed to defending Europe, all bets wd be off.

Following our emergency appeal last month, we are pleased to announce that Notes from Poland has been saved - for now - thanks to our readers and a new partnership with the EFC Foundation. Thank you so much for your support! For more details, click below.

The proposed law is so contrary to EU law and values that it is practically the beginning of Huxit, say Hungarian political scientists

Really good and important points re far-right support.

I wrote about the recent string of election bans and proposals in Romania, France, and Germany. They are often criticized but sometimes for the wrong reasons -- the main issue with them is that they don’t get to the root of the problem.

This seems like an existential threat to Hungary's independent sector. Besides practically forbidding any criticism of Hungary's "democracy" if an organization or media outlet receives foreign funding (including EU money), it would make receiving domestic funding difficult as well.

Vetoes are more common in the #EU today. Two things have made building consensus more difficult: agreement among member-states has decreased, while the need to respond quickly to global events has grown. 🆕insight by @zecsaky.bsky.social & Charles Grant Read here: buff.ly/DGNa8tD

Btw, this is a common argument in Eastern Europe when people rationalize voting for an oligarch-- he's already rich, so he won't steal as much. The reality is that corruption does not result from the need to steal but from a motivation to do it and the lack of meaningful constraints/accountability.

I wrote about the recent string of election bans and proposals in Romania, France, and Germany. They are often criticized but sometimes for the wrong reasons -- the main issue with them is that they don’t get to the root of the problem.

After the paradox of democracy, perhaps there is such a thing as the paradox of militant democracy -- bans may work best when they are least needed. Here's something from me on the recent string of election bans and proposals in Romania, France, and Germany encompass-europe.com/comment/poli...

Undermining European institutions is a bad idea, especially now as Trump seeks to tear down global ones

After the paradox of democracy, perhaps there is such a thing as the paradox of militant democracy -- bans may work best when they are least needed. Here's something from me on the recent string of election bans and proposals in Romania, France, and Germany encompass-europe.com/comment/poli...

💥Bombshell: Viktor Orbán isn’t just soft-endorsing Romania’s anti-Hungarian nationalist leader—there seem to be secret talks with George Simion’s team. "Political sources in Budapest have told @euronews.com that emissaries from Simion’s campaign have been and are in contact with Orbán's government."

An enlarged EU would face an impaired ability to make decisions quickly & efficiently. Existing mechanisms, such as the passerelle & constructive abstention, offer potential ways forward but are only partial solutions. 🆕insight by @zecsaky.bsky.social & Charles Grant Read here: buff.ly/DGNa8tD

An influx of new members would shake up the EU’s institutional set-up. Enlargement could be combined with differentiated integration, but that won’t solve the question of vetoes. 🆕 @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @zecsaky.bsky.social and Charles Grant Read here: buff.ly/DGNa8tD

This is some excellent analysis ahead of Romania's second round.

Far-right candidate Simion's lead in Romania's presidential election reflects public discontent with political elites. To protect democracy, parties must better represent & engage with their voters, in a fair information environment, says Oana Popescu-Zamfir. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

We’ve just published a new report, based on our annual economics conference. It distils the big policy debates on the European economy post-Draghi, drawing on the brainpower around the table. Some journalist friends convinced me it’s worth sharing — so here’s a thread. 1/x

"There is no fraud. There has never been fraud," said Piotr Serafin, the EU budget and anti-fraud commissioner, earlier this week, at the Strasbourg plenary session of MEPs.

Though note that the objection is procedural - EU Commission decisions are not taken by unanimity, so a single Commissioner cannot veto Commission proposals, especially not from outside his dossiers.

The second round will be very important to watch. This outcome in the meantime strengthens the argument that banning candidates in an election is likely to be nothing but a temporary solution in a democracy www.cer.eu/insights/fra...

Whether election bans help safeguard democracy is up for debate. When it comes to tackling the danger that anti-democratic actors represent, political exclusion seems at best a temporary fix. New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social policy brief by @zecsaky.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/NurCmd1

📊 #Infographic / #DidYouKnow Enlargement of new Member States to the EU does not necessarily mean more EU spending for the EU budget 💶 1/5 Explanations and graphs of the budgetary costs of #enlargement with @eulaliarubio.bsky.social & @benjamincouteau.bsky.social 👉 institutdelors.eu/en/publicati...

Excluding candidates from standing in elections may be a legally sound option to protect democracy from anti-democratic forces. But it is an insufficient solution on its own. Read @zecsaky.bsky.social latest analysis for @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social here: buff.ly/NurCmd1

@ec.europa.eu has received the complaint and “will assess it before getting back to the complainants”, the COM spokesman said. When it comes to the previous complaint submitted 6 years ago, “it is still on the table”, he explained adding that “more work is needed on that front”. 🙄🔫

The European Union is looking into whether Hungary’s plan to deploy facial recognition technology to identify people attending LGBTQ+ Pride events is illegal. It marks the first real test of landmark EU AI rules. W/ @krmcsngr.bsky.social www.politico.eu/article/hung...

Thoughtful summary here - and calls on the European Democracy Shield tod develop standards for disqualification

Here is something from me on the recent election bans in Romania and France and militant democracy 👇

While no one was paying attention, Slovak parliament passed a Russian-style law imposing unreasonable scrutiny on Slovak NGOs.

The European Parliament's position on the next EU budget ✔️calls for a stronger link between the rule of law and the Union budget post-2027 ✔️welcomes the positive impact of the Rule of Law Conditionality Regulation in protecting the Union’s financial interests🧵

With just over a month to go until the first round of Poland's presidential elections, support for frontrunner Trzaskowski is declining slightly, although he still remains favourite to gain the most votes. PiS-endorsed Nawrocki seems to have fended off the challenge from Konfederacja's Mentzen.

Republicans attacking USAID spent decades saying Africa policy should be “trade not aid”, won power, and eliminated both aid and trade. on.ft.com/4cxNGRq

“populists … create a discourse that empowers. The liberal discourse says: “You can’t do that, that’s stupid”. Clearly, that's not motivating.” By @casmudde

Burner phones to the US, Faraday bags to Hungary. www.politico.eu/article/lawm...

Quite enlightening stuff, good to go through these parallels one by one.

5 DIFFERENT WAYS TO THINK ABOUT THE CRISIS In today's Odd Lots newsletter, I wrote about possible historical parallels to our current environment. What's similar, what's different etc. Sub to the newsletter here! www.bloomberg.com/account/news...