People often overestimate how many others share their views—a phenomenon known as the false consensus effect. In a new article in @ispp-pops.bsky.social, @clandwehr.bsky.social, Philipp Harms and I show that this tendency is associated with stronger populist attitudes: doi.org/10.1111/pops.... - ThreadSky

nilssteiner.bsky.social • 12 days ago

People often overestimate how many others share their views—a phenomenon known as the false consensus effect.

In a new article in @ispp-pops.bsky.social, @clandwehr.bsky.social, Philipp Harms and I show that this tendency is associated with stronger populist attitudes: https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.70026.

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dangrey.bsky.social•12 days ago

Doesn't it depend on the issue? Literally today:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/apr/22/spiral-of-silence-climate-action-very-popular-why-dont-people-realise

clandwehr.bsky.social•9 days ago

Totally. That's why we study the effect across different issues. To find a false consensus effect, people need to have opinions on an issue and it needs to be salient enough in the larger public. If people don't care about an issue, they will just make random mistakes in estimating public opinion.

timharrap.bsky.social•12 days ago

How close do you get to comparing and contrasting this with “false consciousness “?

ewanhoyle.bsky.social•12 days ago

Very interesting. You shared a poll showing how Germans dislike the AfD that I've incorporated into a YouTube video.
Preferential polling might be a powerful deradicalisation tool. https://youtu.be/hQKRwAkEwjE?si=WfSX8oDzC8tgqmxg

geographile.bsky.social•12 days ago

@alt-text.bsky.social

alt-text.bsky.social•12 days ago

Alt text retrieved

votenanocratic.bsky.social•11 days ago

The Silent Majority Fallacy

tavira16.bsky.social•12 days ago

Is this a further example of the Dunning-Kruger effect?

jacksamuels.bsky.social•12 days ago

It's anecdotal, but a common sentiment I've heard throughout my 60-plus years is "I think most people would agree with me."

turnbulldugarte.com•12 days ago

Looks great - congrats Nils (and co)!

ldw1.bsky.social•12 days ago

https://bsky.app/profile/ldw1.bsky.social/post/3lnaar2qm4c2n

vlister.bsky.social•12 days ago

Interesting findings. Thank you.

lotusrice.bsky.social•11 days ago

Lots of insights, even for a layperson. The data is beyond the casual readers grasp and the answer to the following question might be in there. Does age play a role in false consensus? As we age, do we seek false consensus for attitudes we adopted in our youth?

nilssteiner.bsky.social•12 days ago

We build on a classic finding from social psychology: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/002210317790049X. The seminal studies already showed that the tendency to overestimate how many others agree with one's own views also applies to the political sphere.

nilssteiner.bsky.social•12 days ago

A bulk of recent studies have shown that this tendency applies to politicians' beliefs about public opinion as well (e.g.: https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12900). However, less is known about the possible harmful consequences of false consensus beliefs about public opinion among citizens...

nilssteiner.bsky.social•12 days ago

We argue that false consensus beliefs may fuel populist attitudes by making people more receptive to all aspects of populist thinking: belief in a unified will of the people, anti-elitism, and a Manichean view of politics.

nilssteiner.bsky.social•12 days ago

Empirically, we use data from the @gesis-panel.bsky.social. First, we show that beliefs about public opinion on controversial topics differ by people's own views: Those who are in favor of a policy tend to report higher estimates of public approval of that policy.

nilssteiner.bsky.social•12 days ago

In regression analyses, we then show that stronger false consensus beliefs are associated with populist attitudes—and that this association holds for different measures of false consensus beliefs and populist attitudes (including its three subdimensions).

nilssteiner.bsky.social•12 days ago

While both the level and effect of false consensus beliefs are greatest among those who place themselves on the far right of the left-right scale, the association between false consensus beliefs and populist attitudes holds across the entire left-right scale.

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