1/🧵 The conversation around our paper on ideological persuasion has been remarkable. We really appreciate all the feedback and engagement. This thread clarifies some key points and questions and incorporates what we've learned from your engagement. ⬇️ - ThreadSky

adambonica.bsky.social • 45 days ago

1/🧵 The conversation around our paper on ideological persuasion has been remarkable. We really appreciate all the feedback and engagement. This thread clarifies some key points and questions and incorporates what we've learned from your engagement. ⬇️

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geo1412121.bsky.social•28 days ago

could you disprove/respond to the argument made by this Vox article that claims moderation does not actually harm Democrats? that'd be great
https://www.vox.com/politics/406093/democrats-moderation-turnout-swing-voters-study

adambonica.bsky.social•45 days ago

2/🧵Many pundits and consultants claim moderation is key to electoral success. Despite widespread acceptance, these claims lack rigorous evidence to support them. Our research provides some of the most robust analysis to date on whether moderation actually delivers electoral success.

adambonica.bsky.social•45 days ago

3/🧵Candidate ideology can affect vote share in two ways—by mobilizing voters to turnout and by changing voters’ vote choice (i.e. persuasion). Our within-precinct design isolates persuasion effects. We find that nominating even very moderate candidates yields relatively modest electoral returns.

adambonica.bsky.social•45 days ago

4/🧵This suggests that insofar as ideology matters, it likely operates primarily through turnout rather than persuasion. We conjecture that prioritizing base mobilization may yield greater electoral returns than chasing swing voters by moving toward the center.

adambonica.bsky.social•45 days ago

5/🧵 That said, we also caution against interpreting our results as confirmation that Democrats are more likely to win if they run to the left in 2026. Our results certainly don’t rule it out, but (in their current form) they don’t directly support the claim, either.

adambonica.bsky.social•45 days ago

6/🧵 But can even the modest benefits to moderate candidates be meaningful for party success? Perhaps—at least in some cases. We find, for example, that more competitive precincts are the most responsive to candidate ideology. We also find that ideology matters much more for gov contests.

adambonica.bsky.social•45 days ago

7/🧵 Our macro-level analysis reveals that the math simply doesn't appear to support a persuasion-first strategy. Swing voter gains from moderation would need to be ENORMOUS to offset the turnout differentials we observe.

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