You probably saw yesterday that Ukraine agreed to the ceasefire arrangement proposed by the U.S. And you may have had a bit of the same reaction many did: Was Ukraine pressured into this by Trump’s coercive tactics? The answer is far more complex and interesting. My write-up in the replies. - ThreadSky

nycjayjay.bsky.social • 38 days ago

You probably saw yesterday that Ukraine agreed to the ceasefire arrangement proposed by the U.S. And you may have had a bit of the same reaction many did: Was Ukraine pressured into this by Trump’s coercive tactics? The answer is far more complex and interesting. My write-up in the replies.

Comments

ravrose.bsky.social•38 days ago

Great write-up. I really appreciate being pulled away from the edge. (On the edge is how I felt when I first heard the news.) Slava Ukraini!!!

michaelmozina.bsky.social•38 days ago

And Putin proceeded to bomb Ukraine shortly thereafter. But Putin isn't disrespecting Trump or anything.

silbu.bsky.social•38 days ago

Sounds good.I hope you're right,but a lot of things have to fall into place at the same time .
Also we have to watch for grandstanding from Washington to mess things up.

sabinstargem.bsky.social•38 days ago

/2 A thought just occured: The US is gathering troops by Mexico. What if the US calls for Article 5 after attacking Mexico? Trump might use it as an excuse for pulling out of NATO. (Not a good one, but there you go.)

sabinstargem.bsky.social•38 days ago

My guess: to buy time for the EU to negotiate a deal with Ukraine, and for the EU to pass spending bills and the like to lend assistance.

Plus, Trump might pull out of NATO within the ceasefire window. If that happens, suddenly America has no say on what NATO does regarding Ukraine.

/1

pomian.bsky.social•38 days ago

And Canada? Does Canada call article 5 when USA invades Canada - "to protect its security..."

sabinstargem.bsky.social•38 days ago

Technically, Article 5 can't be invoked if a NATO member attacks another. Practically? I would say yes, NATO membership or not.

glorestor.bsky.social•38 days ago

Thata not a ceas fire thats surrender donr fucking do it!!!!

almost-done321.bsky.social•38 days ago

Ukraine cannot trust Trump Vance and little Rubio

jfritte.bsky.social•38 days ago

The ball is in Russia’s court now.

daumdesign.bsky.social•38 days ago

“Yes, I will have a Diet Coke my little man.. oh and do they have those little sandwiches?”

claudfern.bsky.social•38 days ago

Slimy Starmer and his government are more aligned with tRump than is being widely reported. He wants to decimate disability benefits, has already done so with pensioner benefits and his Bank of England has rolled back DEI regulations. Nevermind also regularly throwing Trans people under the bus.

claudfern.bsky.social•38 days ago

Before the election I called them "Conservative Lite", but every day they prove they are under cover Conservatives and the Tories are nearing alt right territory.

richardkeppler.bsky.social•38 days ago

I've my own critiques of Keith Stalin but he's not in league with Trump. He's already got a 100 year minerals deal out of Ukraine, is planning a British base in Odessa and is working with Macron to rope a dope Trump in to splitting with Russia after Russia refuses this ceasefire.

drape2maniac.bsky.social•38 days ago

Has Russia agreed to it?

wayneq4444.bsky.social•38 days ago

A wonderful read . Ukraine will always be the smartest people in any room of negotiators. Yes their hands are tied or restrained but they still can manipulate an idiot like trump

bbix.bsky.social•38 days ago

and the Russians bombed Zelensky’s hometown: after the proposed cease fire announcement

democritus555.bsky.social•38 days ago

Does anyone with a brain really believe Trump is ever going to disadvantage his best buddy, putin? He is planning to take credit for brokering peace, but more likely, it's a trap. I suspect before the end of Trump's term, Ukraine sadly will lose a whole lot more, in terms of territory and resources.

mauvemelinda.bsky.social•38 days ago

Informative analysis, thank you,

"The goal of the plan is to ensure that it will be Russia in the spotlight, forced to show its hand."

soehl.bsky.social•38 days ago

Ukraine is calling their bluff. It's all lies.

daviedoall.bsky.social•38 days ago

Thanks for your insight and analysis. I was wondering what induced Zalensky to this ceasefire. It looks brilliant from here! 4D for sure. Slava Ukraine!

herrschmidt.bsky.social•38 days ago

Why does Rubio always look like a private schoolboy about to be disciplined?

jlmicky.bsky.social•38 days ago

There is no way Ukraine can ever trust Russia but they know it and Europe knows it. Maybe buy some time.

jlmicky.bsky.social•38 days ago

Rubio looks so small.

omneynb.bsky.social•38 days ago

And Russia said no. So stop blaming Ukraine.

kathrynhallpr.bsky.social•38 days ago

This was a good overview. Thank you.

dr-ann1953.bsky.social•38 days ago

Where?

avicea.bsky.social•38 days ago

Bingo.

richardkeppler.bsky.social•38 days ago

This would be the fifth time Ukraine has requested a ceasefire. In all previous attempts they were on the ropes and needed a breather. This time is no different.

https://bsky.app/profile/richardkeppler.bsky.social/post/3lk6qsp7gnk22

nycjayjay.bsky.social•38 days ago

Link: https://open.substack.com/pub/statuskuo/p/4d-chess-in-ukraine?r=1zr8b&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false

dolanrider.bsky.social•38 days ago

That could well explain Kier Starmer not pushing back on Trump's tariffs. Good read thx.

clairebike.bsky.social•38 days ago

Excellent read. Thank you!

frankenmizer.bsky.social•38 days ago

"The more I looked into what went on behind the scenes..Ukraine and its supporters had threaded the needle: They won back critical U.S. military and intelligence support and gave Trump what he wanted, all while setting up Putin to be the bad guy who rejects peace."

Good analysis. Thank you. 🙇✊

occupyonelove.bsky.social•38 days ago

Ukraine will cease and Russia will fire.

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