Haha I can’t pretend I’m not regretting that slightly now. Have set myself up ok for 29 but it’s the later transition from blank to double where I’m hoping the Venn diagram is kind to me.
It depends how 33->34 transition lands in terms of fixtures mostly, still think the early FH was a reasonable bet for some with the EV gains but we shall see.
I'm sure the consequences will be reasonable and fair, can't think of a time where GW34 was swingy, no sir.
You absolute legend for both calculating and sharing these percentages. I have 5 FTs and this next week is the most exciting week of the season so far for chip planning.
Incredible amount of detail!
Can someone smarter than me turn this into a viable chip strategy for the rest of the season? (assuming all chips are still available)
But this is when the UEL final is, so there would only be 2 spaces (GW33 & GW36 midweeks) free for 3 games.
However if TOT make UEL top 8 (now 99.5% to do so after winning last night), then GW25 midweek will be free, as they won't be taking part in the playoffs.
So the PL could be proactive with an announcement, conditional on TOT making EFL cup final (else no need for FUL-TOT to move from GW29)
They are rated at 30% to make the final per Bet365, so probably a 15-25% chance of it happening, depending on how likely you think the PL are to be proactive.
Comments
I'm sure the consequences will be reasonable and fair, can't think of a time where GW34 was swingy, no sir.
If you had to put a number to it, what would you say the chance is of the Tottenham/Fulham match being put into GW25?
(30% to make EFL cup final and 80%(?) likely PL are proactive with rearranging)
Can someone smarter than me turn this into a viable chip strategy for the rest of the season? (assuming all chips are still available)
DGW24 - EVE + LIV
DGW25 - FUL + TOT may double if TOT make EFL cup final and PL are proactive in rescheduling
BGW29 - 2 blank fixtures for EFL cup finalists
DGW33 - likely 2-3 doubles for the EFL cup finalists + some chance that GW34 games of FAC semi finalists are brought forward
DGW36 - likely 3-4 doubles for FA cup semi finalists (some chance that GW29 blanks are moved here)
BGW37 - possible for TOT if they reach finals in all 3 cups, but still avoidable even so (proactive rescheduling to DGW25)
I think Chelsea, Man Utd and Villa can also Blank in GW37
TL;DR
- TOT need to make EFL cup final (~30%) and UEL top 8 (~99.5%)
- PL need to be proactive with an announcement (?%)
Announcement would be likely ahead of GW24, with confirmation ahead of DGW25 itself after EFL cup SF
If TOT make all 3 cup finals, then they will have 3 postponements from
- GW29 with EFL cup final
- GW34 with FA cup SF
- GW37 with FA cup final.
For most teams, making the FA cup final would just push their GW37 fixture to the midweek.
However if TOT make UEL top 8 (now 99.5% to do so after winning last night), then GW25 midweek will be free, as they won't be taking part in the playoffs.
They are rated at 30% to make the final per Bet365, so probably a 15-25% chance of it happening, depending on how likely you think the PL are to be proactive.