Any report of renewable energy capacity should include expected or actual capacity factor (CF). Omitting the CF is a malicious deceit (see "lie," Oxford English Dictionary).
The IEA has generally somewhat underestimated solar deployment capacity amounts but these are "no new policies" scenarios rather than "forecasts" as wrongly stated on the Economist chart, which strongly exaggerates the effect.
The IEA knows that it's implausible no new climate policies will exist
I would guess that we're not all that far from a situation where solar deployment gets systematically and strongly **over-estimated** in projections / forecasts (as in, actual forecasts) - this is already happening in Australia (I'll publish my post on this pretty soon)
Forecast that's close to the current value is pretty common. Hard to improve on "I guess that the next thing that happens will look like what's currently happening"
Does anyone know why 2023 was apparently such a jump in expansion? 2024 is still growing stronger than 2023, but the difference to 2023 is much smaller than the year before...
Comments
It will show still encouraging growth, but growth that is swallowed entirely by increased demand AND growth in all fuels.
We’re a long way from even making progress.
#leastwrong
@fssau.bsky.social
https://bsky.app/profile/fssau.bsky.social/post/3lbntbwvvp223
The IEA knows that it's implausible no new climate policies will exist
#climatesky
If I am advising a client looking to sell product into the renewables market, the pessimistic forecast is likely most useful.
For public policy, the model needs to be rather more elaborate.