Robin George Andrews writes about the few-per-thousand edge case of #2024YR4 potentially impacting the Moon.

Part of the disagreement about how obvious that would be if on the near side is the difference between the initial flash (mag -6 versus the rest of the Moon at -11) and the ejecta plume.
NEW: Everyone’s hoping asteroid 2024 YR4 doesn’t hit Earth. It probably won’t; the odds are 2.1%.

But, rather awesomely, there’s a (slim) chance that it hits the Moon instead, with the force of hundreds of atomic bombs. And we’d see it happen!

Me @newscientist www.newscientist.com/article/2467...

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