As most people that follow me know, I am a bit skeptical of this last little stretch for the Ducks so I wanted to do a deep dive into some of the numbers to see if there is improvement or if it is just pure goaltending. This is going to be a long thread so bear with me - ThreadSky

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jake.crashthepond.com • 23 days ago

As most people that follow me know, I am a bit skeptical of this last little stretch for the Ducks so I wanted to do a deep dive into some of the numbers to see if there is improvement or if it is just pure goaltending. This is going to be a long thread so bear with me

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jake.crashthepond.com•23 days ago

To start here are the 5v5 S&VA numbers for the season and last 10 games per @evolving-hockey.com

Season:
2.32 xGF/60 (25th)
3.09 xGA/60 (32nd)
2.19 GF/60 (25th)
2.43 GA/60 (20th)

Last 10:
2.33 xGF/60 (22nd)
2.77 xGA/60 (23rd)
2.73 GF/60 (8th)
2.37 GA/60 (18th)

jake.crashthepond.com•23 days ago

So on the surface, it appears like they have improved a bit defensively to bring down their xGA/60, but offensively they have remained fairly stagnant with chance creation, the big difference has been shooting luck has gone their way offensively at 5v5

jake.crashthepond.com•23 days ago

The really interesting thing is that the Ducks PDO for most of the season has been around 1.0 so from a pure shooting and save % perspective on the season so it got me wondering how the Ducks shot quality per unblocked shot for and against compared to the league at 5v5

jake.crashthepond.com•23 days ago

Here are their expected sh% per unblocked shot (Fenwick) for and against at 5v5. I am going to label it as xFSHF% and xFSFA%

Season:
5.80 xFSHF% (27th)
6.46 xFSHA% (29th)

Last 10:
5.43 xFSHF% (30th)
6.19 xFSHA% (17th)

jake.crashthepond.com•23 days ago

What that shows is they have reduced the quality of shot against by about 0.27% from their season average but they have decreased the danger of the shots for by 0.37%.

So yes they have improved defensively but it has come at the cost of a decrease in offensive looks

jake.crashthepond.com•23 days ago

That was a lot of numbers and data, but none of that reveals to me meaningful improvement overall. The biggest difference is the puck is going in more, but it is not due to a systemic change or improvement within the team.

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