The most recent proposed tariff additions bring the total increases to well above campaign promises.
The plans in total brings US duties to near 20% of imports, a level not seen since Smoot-Hawley and will slice 2% of GDP even with conservative retaliation estimates.
Thread.
The plans in total brings US duties to near 20% of imports, a level not seen since Smoot-Hawley and will slice 2% of GDP even with conservative retaliation estimates.
Thread.
Comments
These levies taken together would increase costs / government revenues by nearly 300bln/yr, reflecting some import substitution.
At near 20% of all imports, the level of proposed duties would be the highest since Smoot-Hawley.
While there's little clarity, just taking a Canada-like response (25% matching only on *1/3* of goods), slices off nearly 1% of GDP. A full reciprocation approach would be disastrous at 3x that amount.
And one of several fiscal drags underpriced in the market today.