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bobeunlimited.bsky.social
CIO @ Unlimited | Fmr Bridgewater IC | Described as one of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit (or is it #finsky?) | Comments are not investment advice
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Posts 18 Comments 32

Fiscal policy is in the drivers seat determining what is going to happen in '25. Always great to catch up with David Lin.

submitted 1 hour ago • 0 comments

The AXS VC Tracker mutual fund ($LDVIX) is another example of a private fund replication approach with a portfolio that is nothing like VC. That is because all it does is hold mega-cap stocks to replicate venture returns.

submitted 16 hours ago • 0 comments

Very little risk premium priced in given pretty extraordinary economic policy uncertainty.

submitted 18 hours ago • 0 comments

Apologies that I'm late to share this month's macro webinar, but figured folks would still find it useful since a lot of the conversation about policy tradeoffs hasn't changed much from a few weeks ago. Enjoy!

submitted 20 hours ago • 0 comments

The most recent proposed tariff additions bring the total increases to well above campaign promises. The plans in total brings US duties to near 20% of imports, a level not seen since Smoot-Hawley and will slice 2% of GDP even with conservative retaliation estimates. Thread.

submitted 1 day ago • 3 comments

Genuine question. How does @DOGE account for $65bln in total savings so far when the "wall of receipts" add up to $9.6bln of savings in contracts and 114mln/yr in leases?

submitted 1 day ago • 5 comments

There are times when the truth of the reported data is better to benchmark on than any guess about the future. But when things are shifting quickly, you can fall quickly behind with that perspective. This is one of those times.

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

Here is another flavor of ETF's trying to jam in private market assets - 90% Nasdaq and 10% SpaceX. If you like privates, why would you buy something where only 10% of the assets are the thing you are looking for?

submitted 1 day ago • 2 comments

Not many signs of drill baby drill so far.

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

The post election crypto euphoria is collapsing. Many have completed a full round trip and even BTC is down 20% from highs. While there are idiosyncratic elements, if past cycles are any indication, these are likely first signs of liquidity drying up across markets. Thread.

submitted 2 days ago • 8 comments

Its not partisan rhetoric to say that $1 of spending cuts to poor people is a much bigger drag on growth than the possible offsetting support from $1 of tax cuts for rich people even though the budget remains flat. It's just macro mechanics.

submitted 2 days ago • 3 comments

Another example of efforts to get illiquid exposures into an ETF that suck. Take $LQPE, which holds Adobe, CVS, and Caterpillar among their top 10. Not "a set of publicly traded stocks that is as similar as humanly possible to the portfolio of thousands of LBO companies."

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

Dealing with the long-term debt overhang across the developed world requires either a productivity boom, higher inflation, or both. In the UK at least, doesn't look like productivity is a good bet.

submitted 2 days ago • 1 comment

Bond yields are falling for bad reasons (weaker growth), not good reasons (a disinflationary surprise). https://buff.ly/3Xe4M08

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

While DOGE keeps chopping, Congress is now signaling a desire for even bigger cuts. The house budget passed last night extends the TCJA with 1.5-2tln in pay-for cuts to programs for the poor, outlining a big fiscal tightening ahead despite no deficit progress. Thread.

submitted 3 days ago • 3 comments

Most of the efforts to get illiquid exposures into an ETF suck. Take $PEVC from Pacer ETFs where the top holdings are US mega caps.

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

The last time private non residential fixed investment was this high was back during the tech bubble. It'll need to push even higher to keep growth going ahead.

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

Policies from the new admin will cause US labor supply growth to fall from 1-1.5%/yr to roughly 0% (or lower), a radical downward shift in the underly potential growth of the US economy.

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments