surprised how much of Tesla’s revenue (~ 25%) is flogging carbon credits to other automakers, EU should target Tesla credits in tariffs and policy switch to EU suppliers.
Yeah, slap tariffs on Tesla specifically, that would have a major impact. Would help drive a wedge between Trump and Musk, weaken the whole tariff drive.
The thing with tariffs is I suspect US consumers will pay the premium for ‘US made’ assuming there is commensurate uplift in domestic production, and wages increase, big if. Trump might be able to spin that for a while.
The thing is that he is putting tariffs on stuff like steel and aluminium, but increasing domestic production is really tough. Can't just expand existing plants. It's going to drive prices up, like it did last time.
Its going to drive prices up but he’ll ramble on about reindustrialisation like last time, Fox etc will do the propaganda, his cult will sing the hymn-sheet, 👇this stuff is a 40 yr project, Biden lost the comms battle while actually effecting some policy, Trump might do the opposite.
Tesla is a profitable company, so they won't fail. But at their level of sales (about 1 million a year, or half of what BMW sells) the stock should be worth about $15 a share. BMW's market cap is 49 billion, Tesla's is 1 trillion. So overvalued by about 40 times.
It's only profitable because of carbon credits - which could end. It has a massive fixed overhead in its Gigafactories and collapsing sales. It could fail.
Oh how that has cheered me up. But I suppose losing the odd billion is, for musk, just a bit of a bad day in the office and he’ll make it up elsewhere by getting the puppet to make that possible.
Comments
https://carboncredits.com/tesla-carbon-credits-revenue-up-by-12/
https://fortune.com/2025/02/11/tesla-elon-musk-dilemma-political-baggage-sales-brand-loyalty-investor-confidence-stock-price/
Hope Tesla turns into penny stocks presently.
He says with the air of confidence of someone who doesn’t have a clue what his pension administrators invest in.