Been talking to investors about 2025 (cos its that time of year...) Here are the most popular questions. Any additions? - ThreadSky

darioperkins.bsky.social • 81 days ago

Been talking to investors about 2025 (cos its that time of year...) Here are the most popular questions.
Any additions?

Comments

indysmith.bsky.social•81 days ago

Surprised not to see anything on energy markets or prices. Will energy in Europe be cheaper?

ahokasjaj.bsky.social•81 days ago

What is the meaning of all this?

sardonicious.bsky.social•81 days ago

How is “will the world erupt into a fury of double-digit import tariffs” not question #1?

darioperkins.bsky.social•81 days ago

its implicit in question one 🤣

blueskyinvesting.bsky.social•81 days ago

How exceptional is American exceptionalism?

emmbee2.bsky.social•81 days ago

List is pretty comprehensive but widely recognized. It's also not very hard to have a narrow range of outcomes if there were policy continuity. The interesting thing about 2025 is that due to the new administration, that range has widened dramatically.

chris-williamson.bsky.social•81 days ago

US dollar outlook?

mishoiliev.bsky.social•81 days ago

Will Trump reverse course if/when inflation starts rising / stock market starts dropping / indicators show a a recession is coming?

mishoiliev.bsky.social•81 days ago

Or is he going to be stubborn. And so can long-term investing in US equities continue to be a good idea, should we buy the dip if/when it happens?

welloldstem.bsky.social•81 days ago

I would.

mishoiliev.bsky.social•81 days ago

So we should not view Trump as the mother of all structural breaks in the US economy (that worries me most, what if he is)

welloldstem.bsky.social•81 days ago

I wouldn't. To paraphrase Tyson, Everyone has a plan till spoos go down 20

deathswap1.bsky.social•81 days ago

Markets are projecting all their hopes and dreams on Trump (who hasn't even be inaugurated yet)

valuations.bsky.social•81 days ago

And GDP grew only 2-3% his first term if you don’t include Covid shock, and that was without the massive deficit that needs to be managed. Definitely a glass is half full expectation right now.

deathswap1.bsky.social•81 days ago

10yrs were at 40bps
Inflation solidly under 2% (much to the chagrin to the Fed)
Obama ran a tight fiscal ship (deficit under 2%)

This time round is going to be much, much tougher on Trump.

reziemba.bsky.social•81 days ago

Great list! On the Trump pragmatism/transactional point, it seems mostly financial actors who see that view others less so.

I get “can Trump really boost oil production/lower prices” a lot? Which of course ties into some of your inflation answers