There's concerns that chinese manufacturing is about to hit a deflationary spiral that will lower capacity, and I think some people on the margins there have already been hit.
Specifically within the lens of climate mitigation, that is a good thing.
Of course that's close to a margin of error, and @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social estimates emissions fell year-year only in the final ten months of 2024, and were up 0.8% for the whole year.
Either way, it looks like a turning point has been reached for Chinese carbon emissions
(Carbon Monitor's dashboard shows two percentages for each sector - the sectoral emissions change is highlighted in blue, the other percentage is contribution to overall emissions change)
interesting, hadn't cross checked Lauri's analysis against Carbon Monitor
I haven't dug into details for a few years but my understanding of CM methodology was that it's pretty thin for some sectors eg industry, so I would lean towards Lauri's figures
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Specifically within the lens of climate mitigation, that is a good thing.
https://jaxroam.vivaldi.net/2024/08/18/past-the-peak-climate-control/
Either way, it looks like a turning point has been reached for Chinese carbon emissions
I haven't dug into details for a few years but my understanding of CM methodology was that it's pretty thin for some sectors eg industry, so I would lean towards Lauri's figures
GCP and Lauri are using fuel proxies
eg tonnes of coal, barrels of oil
these are high quality proxies for CO2
Carbon Monitor is more indirect eg industrial production index and traffic data from satnavs… wouldn't capture EVs for eg
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_q4QSUeSbwToR5ePTJnCxUzjsZFN-DbO/edit
(...And can't remember what we'd been 'debating': whether Chinese coal use would decrease this year, I think??)
Good... but way to go! E.g.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/experts-what-to-expect-in-chinas-climate-pledge-for-2035/