Latest from #AGU24: That reduced cloud cover that contributed to 2023 and 2024's record temps? It could be part of a worrying long-term trend of cloud loss, now spotted in observations over the past two decades. *If* this is a feedback to global warming, it is stronger than anticipated. A big if! - ThreadSky

voosen.me • 70 days ago

Latest from #AGU24: That reduced cloud cover that contributed to 2023 and 2024's record temps? It could be part of a worrying long-term trend of cloud loss, now spotted in observations over the past two decades.

*If* this is a feedback to global warming, it is stronger than anticipated. A big if!

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jakobjuhola.bsky.social•69 days ago

Was reminded of this from 2020: https://e360.yale.edu/features/why-clouds-are-the-key-to-new-troubling-projections-on-warming

aaronshem.bsky.social•49 days ago

It’s actually quite simple, pretty much the exact same thing happened in 1877-1878. Multiple la nina with a sudden fast transition to el nino dynamic early in the year. Warm water that usually cool before el nino initiation were pushed outward. This muted the el nino index because of the smaller…

aaronshem.bsky.social•49 days ago

relative temperature difference in the el nino region. The sudden transition initiated intense rossby wave propagation that caused blocking that led to clear skies and low convection in key regions (north atlantic) and destabilized the jetstreams. Synoptician Paul Roundy pointed this out early 2023.

aaronshem.bsky.social•49 days ago

https://bsky.app/profile/aaronshem.bsky.social/post/3ldghdeozfk2c

aaronshem.bsky.social•49 days ago

That’s a big if!

aaronshem.bsky.social•49 days ago

🧵
https://bsky.app/profile/aaronshem.bsky.social/post/3ldpbb5dzes2z

umsonst.bsky.social•70 days ago

Sadly its a tiny if, as the surface pattern matches perfectly well with global warming surface feedbacks of drying out continents, the expansion of marine heatwave, sea ice losses (Antarctica signal) and an intensification of the positive Indian Dipole. The cloud feedback is a mutual reinforcing one

kencaldeira.com•70 days ago

Note that cloud-radiative feedbacks are an important and under-studied aspect of El Nino cycles.

Not every short term change is a long term trend.

More research is needed, as are increased efforts to avoid further interference in the climate system.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/32/15/jcli-d-18-0842.1.xml

deepest-sleeper.bsky.social•69 days ago

Do you mind elaborating on this point? The paper seems to refer to 2-7 year shifts whereas the article describes satellite data that spans 35 years?

More importantly, if that data "would indicate a cloud feedback that’s off the charts" what does this finding say about ECS?

deepest-sleeper.bsky.social•69 days ago

I know it would indicate a higher ECS and am not heartened by the fact that two scientists mentioned (George Tselioudis and Norman Loeb) both seem to agree with James Hansen that super-high ECS is likely to be vindicated: https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/Acceleration.2023.11.10.pdf

deepest-sleeper.bsky.social•69 days ago

But I am confused re ballpark numbers. Would a high cloud feedback mean ECS greater than 4.5C is likely likr the "hot" CMIP6 models predicted? Or just somewhat above 3C? Thanks.

energycheckup.bsky.social•70 days ago

Considering how hubristically elites have responded to these temp increases to date, is it really prudent to “hope it changes its direction tomorrow”, or - like most addicts- do we actually need to hit some kind of bottom ASAP to be able to hear the wake-up call and change our behavior? 🐸🍯🔥

beagoode.bsky.social•70 days ago

People’s March Jan 18 2025
https://www.peoplesmarch.com
#People’sMarch

darksapiens.bsky.social•70 days ago

📌

followmal.bsky.social•70 days ago

📌

alexwitze.bsky.social•70 days ago

If, if, IF!

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