Draft is self-correcting. How many times did you hear that? Now you can see it thanks to 17Lands data. And don't worry - explanation follows. 1/7 - ThreadSky

sierkovitz.bsky.social • 18 hours ago

Draft is self-correcting. How many times did you hear that?

Now you can see it thanks to 17Lands data. And don't worry - explanation follows.

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sierkovitz.bsky.social•18 hours ago

This graph shows standard deviation of play and win rate of the 10 color pairs in DFT. This is a measure of dispersion of data: the smaller it is, the closer all the values are together. What does it mean?

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sierkovitz.bsky.social•18 hours ago

Play rate standard deviation increases over time. So there are larger disparities in play rate between week 1 and week 2. Players realised what the good and bad pairs are and started drafting more of the good ones and less of the bad ones. And you can clearly see it on the graph below.

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sierkovitz.bsky.social•18 hours ago

At the same time the win rates got flatter - standard deviation decreased. Top win rate pairs are drafted more, so the decks become weaker and win rate lower.

Underdrafted color pairs get access to good cards more predictably, and their win rates increase.

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sierkovitz.bsky.social•18 hours ago

Is the format fully corrected? Not yet and it never really does. Orzhov is still underdrafted - I think because it is misunderstood. @samuelhblack.bsky.social - maybe a good topic to cover? Izzet is still overdrafted because - again my hypothesis - the archetype is appealing.

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sierkovitz.bsky.social•18 hours ago

Part of the self-correction is based on frequency of drafting but part will be based on innovation. Some color combinations are easier to figure out early, some take time. If you base your understanding of the format on the early data you risk lagging behind.

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germangaryoak.bsky.social•18 hours ago

Big change is also that self-correction is a much bigger factor in in-pod drafts than they are in arena especially given the matchmaking

sierkovitz.bsky.social•18 hours ago

Both changes in frequency and innovation are key mechanisms of self-correction and to convert successfully from early format to mid format drafting - you better keep your hand on the pulse.

And who knows - maybe try innovating yourself? Surely one every 5 drafts can be done for science?

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