🧵Look towards the light.
As Rebel forces in Syria advanced across Syria & never stopped a key question was why the Regime evaporated. Syria by night provides some clues on how the Regime's social contract collapsed.
Read my analysis here https://aspistrategist.org.au/just-look-at-the-lights-assads-territory-was-growing-poorer-as-oppositions-economy-advanced/
& read on
As Rebel forces in Syria advanced across Syria & never stopped a key question was why the Regime evaporated. Syria by night provides some clues on how the Regime's social contract collapsed.
Read my analysis here https://aspistrategist.org.au/just-look-at-the-lights-assads-territory-was-growing-poorer-as-oppositions-economy-advanced/
& read on
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Comments
1. Complete lack of foreign firepower and air support
2. Increased professionalism and good governance in Opposition territory
3. Economic stagnation and the collapse of Assad's social contract.
@azelin.bsky.social
recently wrote a detailed and helpful article on the 2nd (https://warontherocks.com/2024/12/the-patient-efforts-behind-hayat-tahrir-al-shams-success-in-aleppo/), and
@E_of_Justice's twitter thread here is helpful too
https://x.com/E_of_Justice/status/1865664099423498521
Thus an investigation of changes in nighttime lights across Syria can provide valuable empirical data.
Greg Waters and Trent Schoenborn's work - especially clear here https://bellingcat.com/news/mena/2018/10/03/fifteen-months-death-pro-government-casualties-syrian-civil-war/)