Tesla deliveries in Q1 are expected to be the lowest in the past 10 quarters, falling below the 386,810 units delivered in Q1 last year. For more details, check out my latest update on Patreon: https://patreon.com/posts/2025-Q1-Tesla-10-124066446
My average error rate is 2.6% for Tesla’s deliveries and 1.4% for production.
My average error rate is 2.6% for Tesla’s deliveries and 1.4% for production.
Comments
DON’T.
BUY.
TESLAS.
With FSD closer than ever you can almost count 386810 as future Robotaxis which are running 24/7, let's say 10-12 hrs conservative, that's equivalent of 2 million cars in Q1
Lets just say that Tesla puts out something as good as Waymo. Waymo is already doing 100k+ robotaxi rides per quarter, yet I don't see that justifying a $650 billion valuation of Tesla.
2. 10-12 is not conservative. Even though the average use per day is low, it often happens at the same times (aka rush hours) and almost not at all much of the time (aka night)
https://youtu.be/VSRBIcq3mwQ?t=263
I disagree that it can't be measured. For example, if Model 3 sales are down by 18% and Model Y by 24%, Juniper impact is -6% and brand sentiment -18%.
4680 cells are nickel based. They are expensive and designed for long range EVs. Energy products use cheaper, heavier iron based cells, like CATL LFP cells.
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtesla/tesla-deliveries