Okay, we have the full 2024 election individual turnout data in hand now. Definitely some surprises in here - I'll share some high level thoughts now, and our team will follow up with more in-depth analysis soon.
Comments
Log in with your Bluesky account to leave a comment
Keep wondering about older white men, but curious what those numbers look like. Seems like that might be a bright spot for Dems, at least compared to 2020
Isn’t the punchline the almost shocking performance Trump has with white women - still can’t wrap my brain around that - and and his improvement among young males and Hispanic males? That’s how he won.
Tom, since you are active on Blue Sky now could you address Spoonamore’s claims? I have some mutuals who find him credible, and I don’t have the chops to debunk him. Thanks.
From NC-looked at his numbers. Total votes for Pres approx 107k more than Gov race seems to indicate many didn’t vote down ballot. Not close to the 300k he was saying would change results. But 2020 was only around 21k diff so it was a big increase of people apparently only voting for Pres this time
First - the gender gaps. Despite the state flipping to Trump, the gender gap (which was already massive in 2020) actually grew by almost half a point. This is because turnout (as a % of registered voters) dropped by only 0.9% among women, vs 1.7% among men.
Not only did the gender gap increase, but youth turnout in Georgia was pretty stellar. From a share perspective, voters under 30 held even with 2020, where they were 16.2% of the total turnout.
Okay, but here's our first surprise, perhaps... looking at turnout as a percent of registered Georgia voters, the under age 30 group was the ONLY age group to see turnout increase over 2020! By 1.9 pts, while every other group saw a decline.
So was this increase in youth turnout in GA fueled by the young men targeted by the Trump campaign? It doesn't seem that way. Young women increased their turnout by 2.2 pts, as compared to 1.5 pts among young men.
Here is where it gets a little complicated. The big increase in Hispanic and AAPI vote shares among young voters was driven by growth in population/registration. Turnout as a % of registration actually declined relative to 2020 while Black and white turnout % increased (again, just age 18-30)
Comments