If you accept the science that shows the greenhouse gases we pump into the sky causes warming, you also have to accept the science that shows what happens if we stop.
V v good @andrewdessler.com post showing what happens if we stop causing climate change ->
https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/climate-change-will-stop-when-we
V v good @andrewdessler.com post showing what happens if we stop causing climate change ->
https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/climate-change-will-stop-when-we
Comments
https://www.iea.org/commentaries/suvs-are-setting-new-sales-records-each-year-and-so-are-their-emissions
The inverse is also something that can be made to happen!
https://bsky.app/profile/ketanjoshi.co/post/3kl3qhrxjw32x
That doesn't make me a doomer on climate change, just a realist.
Behavior change *is* possible, but not when many believe it's not up to them to do so.
A tipping point is precisely the point at which the system stops tending towards the old stable situation and tends towards a new different one (or away from stability altogether)
It also doesn't *want* anything.
If not, why not?
From what I can tell they seem to assume that "net zero" means something other than constant concentration even though it's likely to be declared with rising concentrations.
They also...
1) the GHGs already emitted put them at severe risk
2) we are actively directly trashing them faster than ever
3) we are preparing to trash whole new swathes
"Deep Sea Mining" is set to wreak absolute havoc while Krill are already getting devastated.
Shell is not compulsory. Exxon's CEO is not compulsory. Oil is not compulsory. Alex Epstein is not compulsory. Energy is important: fossil fuels are an obscenely shitty, unreliable, dirty and outdated way of getting energy.
We all just have to do our best, is all.
We need to phase it out, too.
We've been sold that lie for too many decades and we're absolutely fucking sick of it.
Are you familiar with any paper or book exploring the socio-economics future?
In use, fossil fuels turn into toxic garbage.
We have also not figured out how to dispose of their toxic garbage.
Bottom line: fossil fuels are toxic garbage.
"Consider this simple example: humans emit CO2 until the year 2010... After that point, the concentration of CO2 is held fixed at 400 ppm in perpetuity, as are all other components of the atmosphere (methane, aerosols, etc.). "
Will be interested in the views of @rahmstorf.bsky.social @pik-potsdam.bsky.social @leonsimons.bsky.social on this
Model uncertainties are too large. There is no real-world reference. So don't trust nice straight lines.
And keeping aerosols constant and turning CO₂ emissions to zero is ridiculous.
No one honestly believes in achieving met zero anytime soon.