🧪⚒️ Oh no, this is bad. Really really bad. M7.7 earthquake in Mynamar. earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/... - ThreadSky

judithgeology.bsky.social • 53 days ago

🧪⚒️

Oh no, this is bad. Really really bad.

M7.7 earthquake in Mynamar.

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000pn9s/executive

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cvigny.bsky.social•53 days ago

yes.
last similar earthquake there March 1839. accumulation at 2 cm/yr => 4 meters of slip approx. simple maths.

geoseeker.bsky.social•53 days ago

I saw this terrible earthquake show up on USGS SWARM. The signature was one I haven’t observed for a while. The Raleigh Waves moved around the planet for what seemed like hours. Question? … was the Bangkok movement due to basin amplification? I’m looking forward to your analysis! Thanks!

blackautumn1031.bsky.social•53 days ago

No sarcasm or sass, but could you please quantify really really bad?

It’s very early and I am without coffee. I’m aware of many factors of bad - it’s the totality that my brain refuses to accept.

judithgeology.bsky.social•53 days ago

The USGS PAGER estimates a 50% chance of >10,000 fatalities, and the potential range goes much higher (100k+). Very few reports are coming out of Myanmar, where the earthquake occurred; an under-construction 30-story building in Bangkok (900 km away) collapsed.

blackautumn1031.bsky.social•53 days ago

Yep, really really bad.

judithgeology.bsky.social•53 days ago

See our write-up about this earthquake on Earthquake Insights:

https://earthquakeinsights.substack.com/p/catastrophic-m77-earthquake-caused

cvigny.bsky.social•53 days ago

Temblor's Coulomb stress calculation illuminates Naypyidaw area, but USGS located 2 "aftershoks" in the area.
=>
is today's rupture longer to the south (including NPT segment) ? or does it mean activation of this segment will promote future rupture there, soon ?

judithgeology.bsky.social•53 days ago

I don’t think the rupture is well enough constrained to say for sure, yet.

cvigny.bsky.social•53 days ago

Unfortunatly, EOS report that they had to shut down their cGPS network there last year due to the difficulty of working there safely...
Our survey benchmarks of 1997 (18 around Mandalay) are probably still there , but I dont know how anyone could get there and remeasure them.

judithgeology.bsky.social•53 days ago

Lindsey et al resurveyed some benchmarks, does that include your points? Doesn’t solve the post-earthquake survey issue, of course. https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0012821X23003977

cvigny.bsky.social•53 days ago

Yes. and they reprocessed our 1998 & 2000 data to put everything in a common frame. excellent work and nice publication.Unsure of which sites were accessible at the time of their surveys and actually re-measured though....

malvazebrina.bsky.social•52 days ago

The partially submerged pagodas are in Inle Lake at 20.487769, 96.906883

malvazebrina.bsky.social•53 days ago

Thank you for the excellent report.

There are a couple of inaccuracies in the photo gallery. The collapsed bridge is the Ava Bridge leading into Mandalay, not Pyay or Mae Sot as labeled.

judithgeology.bsky.social•52 days ago

@lastquake.bsky.social - what is the best way to correct the locations/labels of images in the photo gallery at EMSC? See the notes above.

lastquake.bsky.social•52 days ago

Please send us the exact location with the image at [email protected]. We will correct it. Thanks a lot for your help

malvazebrina.bsky.social•52 days ago

Done. Happy to offer further location assistance if needed.

lastquake.bsky.social•52 days ago

Thank you we will correct this on Monday. If you see other errors please do not hesitate

judithgeology.bsky.social•52 days ago

Yes, I noticed that. There are two versions of the bridge shown; for one, the distance to epicenter in the photo gallery seems correct, but the label is incorrect. I am not sure how the locations and labels are collected.

garryviles.bsky.social•53 days ago

Any explanation for the damage in Bangkok that's about 600 miles or 1000 km from the epicenter? Poor building construction methods or soil conditions in that city near the ocean come to mind as possible reasons.

petnoodle.bsky.social•53 days ago

Just read this— thank you for the important analysis. So horrible for the people there.

hydrology.nl•52 days ago

Made this yesterday for one of our institutes that had poor maps.

judithgeology.bsky.social•53 days ago

For a brief introduction to the Sagaing Fault, which ruptured in this event, you can read our post from May 2023: https://doi.org/10.62481/05fa13e9 (paywall removed).

Stay tuned for a new post about this recent event at Earthquake Insights.

ibitpichu.bsky.social•53 days ago

Great writeup and timely

bullgeschichte.bsky.social•53 days ago

Can you also elaborate on possible reasons for serious destruction in Bangkok a thousand km away?

judithgeology.bsky.social•53 days ago

The high rise that collapsed was under construction, so my guess is that it was especially vulnerable.

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