Between stubbornly persistent inflation + GOP tax cuts (likely expansionary in near term) + tariffs raising price level for imported goods + deportations disrupting supply chains, Fed may be headed for a crash course with Trump. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202... - ThreadSky

crampell.bsky.social • 81 days ago

Between stubbornly persistent inflation + GOP tax cuts (likely expansionary in near term) + tariffs raising price level for imported goods + deportations disrupting supply chains, Fed may be headed for a crash course with Trump. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/11/21/federal-reserve-independence-powell-trump-economy/

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mreddie8976.bsky.social•81 days ago

Can’t wait for that first rate hike to hit after all the orange felon’s stupid policies are in place

digginsdweller.bsky.social•81 days ago

I would imagine the bond market having something to say about it

dflip.bsky.social•81 days ago

The Trump effect…. Maybe

canadianbacon66.bsky.social•81 days ago

Things will get cheaper under 2.0
There will be a recession, if not depression. Eggs will be cheaper, but will you be able to afford them ? Especially with a 10% and up unemployment ?

mreddie8976.bsky.social•81 days ago

Eggs just went up 8% in today’s CPI report, so that orange felon better roll up his sleeves and get to work

HAH!

helen1000.bsky.social•81 days ago

Oh those pesky professionals. Trump knows better/s

imchuckmiller.bsky.social•81 days ago

A clash is inevitable. I wonder which TV commentator Trump will install?

philliefan99.bsky.social•81 days ago

Nov. 2024: Trump's election made the economy great again!

Nov. 2025: ITS BIDUNS FALT

vcat11.bsky.social•81 days ago

The battle for supremacy between the financial system - both public and private markets - and the bros coming into power in DC will be perhaps the most interesting of all the battles to come. In the neoliberal capitalistic system the world operates in, the power of money underpins all.

lucastosborne.bsky.social•78 days ago

📌

crampell.bsky.social•81 days ago

There’s been some debate about how Fed would treat price increases related to tariffs. In 2018 TealBook, Fed staff said officials should “look through” Trump’s tariff increases so long as 2 conditions were met: …

crampell.bsky.social•81 days ago

1) you think it's going to be a one-time adjustment and not a series of adjustments;
2) inflation expectations are anchored.
Not clear either of those conditions will definitely hold in next few years. E.g., back in 2018 we hadn’t recently lived through 9% inflation

sitroni.bsky.social•81 days ago

In 1980 the annual inflation rate was 13.5%. Just sayin'

crampell.bsky.social•81 days ago

On the other hand, trade wars could slow growth. (They hurt investment etc last time, when tariffs were more modest.) Unclear what Fed does in a scenario where tariffs drive prices up but slow growth/labor market.

mreddie8976.bsky.social•81 days ago

It all sounds like a recipe for an inflationary recession/depression

Those are rare, and not easy to create, but hey, let’s give the stable genius a shot at it

allanschlosser.bsky.social•81 days ago

From the Fed to the federal civil service, any government entity with independence, intelligence and integrity poses a threat to the authoritarian Trump.

mikernfn.bsky.social•81 days ago

If the Fed doesn't print money, we will go into a recession. I don't think generalized inflation can happen without the Fed's participation. In the absence of more money, pocketbooks will get crunched, people will pull back and the economy will go backwards. The Fed should not print money.

thebegonis.bsky.social•81 days ago

Unemployment is continuing to trend in the wrong direction and once it gets going it really doesn't slow down until it hits a peak. (Second post points it out)

https://bsky.app/profile/thebegonis.bsky.social/post/3lcywwjbiik2w

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