The West committing economic sepuku which in turn leads to the collapse of Russia would not have been my first option, tbh. But hey! I’ll take it! - ThreadSky

ulyssecolonna.bsky.social • 31 days ago

The West committing economic sepuku which in turn leads to the collapse of Russia would not have been my first option, tbh. But hey! I’ll take it!

Reposted from Anton Barbashin

"With the global economic outlook increasingly dim, Russia’s continued reliance on external demand for energy will hurt. There is no demand stimulus for Russian businesses or households outside the war"
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/be-careful-w...

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antony4646.bsky.social•31 days ago

That depends entirely how long the oil price stays at a low level.
If it's something like one year...yeah, Moscow is not going to be able to pay for its war using oil and gas income.
Which will make things...very interesting, for an economy the size of Spain.

ulyssecolonna.bsky.social•31 days ago

I have to say that this comparison to Spain in very misleading because it does not account for the level of leeway the Kremlin really has. The amount of disposable income Putin has at hand dwarves whatever the Spanish prime minister can muster

antony4646.bsky.social•31 days ago

Oh, I agree.
The problem is that compared to Spain, once you remove the oligarchs, a lot of the Russian population is horribly poor.
It is very much a problem, if you want to tax your not-serfs to finance a war when the oil prices can't anymore.

ulyssecolonna.bsky.social•31 days ago

It is and it isn’t. English peasants in the 18th and even 19th century faced much higher tax levels than most Russians today.

clearspies.bsky.social•31 days ago

Russia has tapped out most of its cash though. It’s borrowing from loans from IOUs from more loans from other IOUs, etc. etc. The ruble is vibes at this point.

jaanus.bsky.social•31 days ago

Yeah

Imagine that

Donald Trump turning out to be the savior of Ukraine and destroyer of russia with his tariffs madness

ulyssecolonna.bsky.social•31 days ago

Papa yaga

clearspies.bsky.social•31 days ago

Yeah, but, I’m positive this tariff plan is direct from Moscow to destabilize America and Europe. Putin’s just suicidal as well as homicidal.

ukrainewarpod.bsky.social•31 days ago

I, for one, have been kind of betting on this. It’s happening even more spectacularly than I thought it would. And faster.

antonvoid.bsky.social•31 days ago

Les grands gagnants de tout ce chaos sont les chinois, c'est ça?

ulyssecolonna.bsky.social•31 days ago

Mmmmmmh peut-être pas. Ils restent un pays très dépendant du commerce international et donc très sensible à la santé de l’économie mondiale.

En revanche ça peut être le bon moment pour Xi de faire passer ce grand changement de modèle dont on parle depuis des années avec plus de demande locale

antonvoid.bsky.social•31 days ago

Je me posais la question car pour l'instant, de toutes les places boursières, les chinoises ont l'air d'être celles qui résistent le mieux.

Le changement dont tu parles, quelque soit la situation internationale peut-il vraiment être amorcé ? J'ai l'impression qu'il a déjà essayé en vain.

antonvoid.bsky.social•31 days ago

Je pense notamment à la problématique du chomage massif chez les jeunes qui risquent de freiner cette consommation intérieure non ?

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