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ulyssecolonna.bsky.social
Creative speller, fanatical aggadist, I dabble in economics. Member @tochnyi.bsky.social
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Oil price drops by $10/bbl, Russian budget loses about $25 bn www.wsj.com/world/russia...

Shipping fees on China vessels scaled back significantly (but only for 6 months)- most of the fees set at 0 for 180 days. Longer reprieve for the proposed ban on use of foreign ships for LNG (3 years) - realizing lng vessels not built overnight? A reprieve but only temp ustr.gov/about/policy...

My latest for the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social is a clarion call: #Libya’s economy isn’t unraveling by accident. From shadow oil deals to digital money printing, what looks like drift is direction - & the path leads to collapse unless reforms reverse course.

@delfoo.bsky.social 🤣

Driven by high sign-on bonuses and speculation that the war will soon be over, more than 1,000 men join the Russian military every day. Several independent reports from Russia point to this high recruitment rate. My dataset of 37 Russian regions seems to confirm it.

‼️ Russia: “The Central Bank expects a systemic liquidity deficit” So they’re doing REPO auctions (again) “The regulator believes that the liquidity deficit could reach 2.4 trillion rubles by the end of the year.” But what if it’s even more than that? www.kommersant.ru/doc/7656583

Something to point out when talking about the high Russian MoD salaries. KMZ that produces BMPs and BMDs raised their salaries again in April by 8,72-9,81% and the average across the board is only 103 000 rubles. ura.news/news/1052911...

From memory, thats a higher rate than any country in the EU despite a much lower debt-to-gps ratio.

The Ru economy has begun to collapse. Thread. Federal budget revenue growth has been slowing for 5 quarters in a row and in Q1 25 it was only +3.7%. Look at the chart, the last 5 quarters the revenue growth rate was +54%_+25%_+25%_+11%_+4% 1/

‼️ Russia: “Police Create Special Forces to Protect Railways from Sabotage” 🍿🍿🍿🍿 Is Russian Railways panicking? www.kommersant.ru/doc/7656827

Crucial point

Something I don't think is understood about the collapse of drinkable ethanol production by 12%. It means the people who due to wage increases could afford legal alcohol in 2023-2024 have now again been priced out. bsky.app/profile/delf...

The Estonian navy seized the Kiwala, an oil tanker on the EU sanctions list, for lacking a valid flag while en route to Russia. Listed for irregular practices, the tanker was flagged from Djibouti, which denies registration. www.devdiscourse.com/article/head...

Lithuania is preparing legal amendments that would allow it to impose national economic sanctions on Russia and Belarus if the European Union fails to extend its own restrictions. www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-e...

‼️ Russia: “Inflation in Russia in March amounted to 0.65%, annual inflation accelerated to 10.34%” Once again, “official” inflation is being manipulated. Actual inflation is likely much higher than that. www.interfax.ru/business/102...

The price of Russian Urals oil has dropped to $50. The budget includes a price of $69.7. If the current price is maintained, the budget will lose 2.5 trillion rubles, and GDP will decrease by 0.5%

The number of companies with overdue debt to Ru banks began to grow sharply The share of legal entities and individual entrepreneurs with overdue debt to Ru banks increased in 2 months from 18% to 22%. Over the year, the growth was from 16% to 22 Source - www.cbr.ru/statistics/b...

Huge problems for the Ru budget! Everyone is talking about the decline in oil revenues RU But they forget about NON-oil tax revenues Starting from the 2nd half of 2024, the growth rate fell from 37% to 10%, in real terms it is 0%, and this is despite the increase in the tax rate!

Woot!! 🚢🛳️ Add this to the list of things we have been excitedly keeping a secret! If Ukraine says they will do something, they will. Congratulations Ukrzaliznytsia and Ukrferry, we can't wait to see you more! en.interfax.com.ua/news/general...

Worst trade policy decision this month. And it’s saying quite a lot!

Basically Trump atm is unwittingly helping the EU to backfill Ukraine and compensate for his tariffs. Thanks Mr President!

Russian Ural oil price dropped to below 50 USD per barrel which is the lowest since June 2023. On April 9th the price was 47,54 USD per barrel in Primorsk and 48,39 USD per barrel in Novorossiysk. www.kommersant.ru/doc/7641788

Russian government bonds collapse

Russia is facing a potential budget crisis as the price of oil plummets on trade war fears. Russia’s Central Bank warned Tuesday that falling global oil prices could strain the country’s public finances, with oil revenues already falling 10% year-on-year in the first quarter.

That's one of the best threads I have ever read regarding Israel and Gaza and how bad western media just copy nonsense from each other without doing the slightest research. (It is in German but worth the read and the translation). @ungemeve.bsky.social great article!

Selon Novaya Gazeta Evropa, la Russie a quasiment fait disparaître toute présence de communautés religieuses non orthodoxes dans les territoires ukrainiens occupés, ciblant notamment les confessions catholique, protestante, musulmane, juive et bouddhiste.

Just call it surrender. Stop playing word games. The United States of America is surrendering to Russia.

Trump has directed the Department of Justice to stop pursuing crypto fraud, dismantling the DOJ’s National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team and ordering the agency’s Market Integrity and Major Frauds Unit to cease cryptocurrency enforcement.

Russian stock index falls by 5%

Bloody hell, a mega API sounds so very dangerous. But if my experience in recently merged company is any guide, systems that were not designed to work together are a bitch to sync.

The West committing economic sepuku which in turn leads to the collapse of Russia would not have been my first option, tbh. But hey! I’ll take it!

As the war between Russian and Ukraine continues, Western cyber support is waning, raising growing concerns about the long-term effectiveness of these efforts. https://therecord.media/western-cyber-aid-to-ukraine-faces-strain-war-drags

President Trump unveiled tariffs of at least 10% Wednesday on virtually the entire world, with one notable exception: Russia.

I joined @TellimerHQ’s Duncan Wales on their great EM podcast yesterday to talk US economic pressure on Russia and others, tariff policy and impact for EM and energy markets. open.spotify.com/episode/1mKG...