If you only read one thread today, make it this one…. - ThreadSky

covertshores.bsky.social • 2 days ago

If you only read one thread today, make it this one….

Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the US have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures. 🧵 1/17

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cjs2000.bsky.social•1 day ago

The thread of Jeffrey Lewis includes many assumptions derived merely from satelitte images that hardly tell anything about what happend below earth and what has been moved where. I doubt that a reliable assessment of the remaining technical capabilities of building a bomb is possible.

cjs2000.bsky.social•1 day ago

And more so, it is unclear what Israel is doing on the ground and will be doing while following up on their damage assessment based on their intelligence.

covertshores.bsky.social•1 day ago

“I doubt that a reliable assessment of the remaining technical capabilities of building a bomb is possible.” That might be one of the challenges

worldwatcher2.bsky.social•1 day ago

Good suggestion. Thanks.

timlow3.bsky.social•1 day ago

Accurate assessment, missing.
The cost of this tactical success.

- War with Iran.
- Possible intervention from China etc.
- wider regional war
- Gulf States vulnerable
- Oil

r6e.co•1 day ago

"tactically brilliant... strategic failures" seems like a good summary of American military action since... WWII? Certainly during my lifetime, at least

drturdferguson.bsky.social•2 days ago

The ignored targets is pretty damning at this point. Though I have to then wonder, why did the US make such a big deal of Fordow? It in itself doesn't cause regime change. I guess the conclusion is trying to bait Iran into attacking the US and draw us into war so we can justify regime change.

universali.bsky.social•2 days ago

Peeped it, would you agree with their conclusion regarding the goal of the strikes as regime change though? Or are the missed targets additional leverage?

psymad.bsky.social•2 days ago

I quote Timothy Snyder :
1/ Many things reported with confidence in the first hours and days will turn out not to be true
2/ war start mostly for domestic politics goals
3/ Rationales and goals change opportunistically over time
4/ War is unpredictable
5/ War are easy to start and hard to stop

psymad.bsky.social•2 days ago

https://bsky.app/profile/timothysnyder.bsky.social/post/3ls6a4s45w22q

covertshores.bsky.social•1 day ago

All great observations

jussijk.bsky.social•2 days ago

Seems to me that they have created a mess that can only be fixed by regime change. Also, it seems very unlikely that the US didn't realize they would be in this position after the strikes, they either planned it this way or were fooled by the Israelis.

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