thermally, especially aloft, it will be a very close shave in DFW proper thursday / thursday night but if we keep the column sub-freezing for most of the event, we could be looking at one of the bigger snowfalls on record at DFW. seems probable that sleet will cut down on accumulation, but how much? - ThreadSky

jpicca.bsky.social • 56 days ago

thermally, especially aloft, it will be a very close shave in DFW proper thursday / thursday night but if we keep the column sub-freezing for most of the event, we could be looking at one of the bigger snowfalls on record at DFW. seems probable that sleet will cut down on accumulation, but how much?

Comments

charliepotatos.bsky.social•56 days ago

think of thanksgiving 93, don't think of leon lett in the endzone, think 13z and it is 030ovc, 40/10 spread 😀

by noon, moderate or greater, the lawyer way of saying severe

worthy of a google tube of leon...

SKI DALLAS 🎿 or skate dallas

jpicca.bsky.social•56 days ago

haha, I was at that game believe it or not. if I recall correctly, ended up being a ton of sleet in Irving that day. similar outcome (with some snow on top at the end) wouldn't be surprising at all.

charliepotatos.bsky.social•56 days ago

first time used modg in my bulletin

locks out all flights if using svr

personal file letter to 👢

wxwatson.bsky.social•56 days ago

Looks like most of the ensemble guidance is suggesting a more northward jog which could unfortunately be bad news bears in terms of ice and much less snow

jpicca.bsky.social•56 days ago

feel like it's a usual trend to see more sleet/ice potential as we get closer, and the synoptic set-up suggests it will likely be an issue. that said, diabatic effects in heavy precip could counter that some.

wxwatson.bsky.social•56 days ago

Cooling the column sufficiently?

jpicca.bsky.social•56 days ago

yeah, melting snow pulling latent heat from the air and keeping the warm nose barely sub-freezing

wxwatson.bsky.social•56 days ago

Considering the PWAT values should be respectively high and in conjunction with the strong synoptic lift, getting heavy precip to fall through the column should not be an issue but I suspect some of the model amounts of snow could be feedback as well

jpicca.bsky.social•56 days ago

certainly anything using a straight 10:1 ratio or something basic to convert liquid to snow is likely well overestimating snowfall potential.

Posting Rules

Be respectful to others
No spam or self-promotion
Stay on topic
Follow Bluesky's terms of service

Comments

Posting Rules

Reply