Since 2007-08 (when it started being tracked), the 2023-24 Caps have the second-lowest 5v4 Sh% of the 520 team-seasons on record at 5.2% (20-21 ANA was 4.6% over a full season). But the Caps also have the 18th *highest* xGF/60 in the sample. Unfathomably poor "luck". Stats via Evolving Hockey - ThreadSky

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japersrink.bsky.social • 472 days ago

Since 2007-08 (when it started being tracked), the 2023-24 Caps have the second-lowest 5v4 Sh% of the 520 team-seasons on record at 5.2% (20-21 ANA was 4.6% over a full season).

But the Caps also have the 18th *highest* xGF/60 in the sample.

Unfathomably poor "luck".

Stats via Evolving Hockey

Comments

theotherrobparker.bsky.social•471 days ago

I would not have expected such high xGF/60, is that coming from Oshie shots at the bumper? Would make sense since he’s also way under expected values individually

japersrink.bsky.social•471 days ago

Dunno. I’ll look into it, but xG models have typically understated the threat of the Caps’ PP because no one scores from the Ovi spot (except Ovi). Now they’re taking more shots from ostensibly better spots with worse finishers.

japersrink.bsky.social•471 days ago

Different models (so different xG), but here are three different Caps PP eras (2009-10, 2013-14 and this year). You can see they're actually doing a great job of getting to the front this year, but that's pretty much it in the slot. Oates PP was halfboards and point. Boudreau was an onslaught.