Flu IFR definitely higher for kids. Whether it is higher for the elderly is questionable - I don't think we know well enough how many flu infections there are. My best guess is that flu and covid IFR's are similar, and that we greatly underestimate flu infection rate. But I don't know. - ThreadSky

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michaelsfuhrer.bsky.social • 501 days ago

Flu IFR definitely higher for kids. Whether it is higher for the elderly is questionable - I don't think we know well enough how many flu infections there are. My best guess is that flu and covid IFR's are similar, and that we greatly underestimate flu infection rate. But I don't know.

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ben-data.bsky.social•501 days ago

I'm basing it on two things.

1. John's tweets here
2. Covid has definitely been getting milder in general due to increasing immunity in the past 18 months. So even if he was off a bit then, covid IFR would be lower now then it was then.

Obviously it's very hard to get a true flu IFR though.

evly.bsky.social•501 days ago

I used to assume flu was likely way higher IFR with few infections but potentially large difference in ascertainment gives me pause. If say C19 was 1.2 avg infx/person over the year and flu 0.4 over 4-5 months, it starts looking in the ballpark? Agree, C19 IFR should be still dropping since 2022

michaelsfuhrer.bsky.social•501 days ago

Before ONS dropped their infection survey, the covid rate was down to 0.8 infections/year. (And I always thought it was a slight overestimate.) The rate has dropped considerably since then.

evly.bsky.social•501 days ago

Oh, interesting on both counts! Thanks for the updated info & perspective

michaelsfuhrer.bsky.social•501 days ago

(1) I think I'd need to look into how John calculated flu IFR. (2) I think the evidence that covid IFR has gone down in the last 18 months is actually pretty weak. (I'd be surprised if there's zero decrease, but I'd also be surprised if it is factor of 2.) I think that infections have slowed more.

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