Or another hypothesis: Was 2017-18 was particularly bad for older ages, maybe those born before A/H3N2 pandemic of 1968? 2017-18 was A/H3N2 dominated in US. (There's support for both hypotheses...) 4/4 www.statnews.com/2018/01/08/f... - ThreadSky

michaelsfuhrer.bsky.social • 8 days ago

Or another hypothesis: Was 2017-18 was particularly bad for older ages, maybe those born before A/H3N2 pandemic of 1968?

2017-18 was A/H3N2 dominated in US.

(There's support for both hypotheses...)

4/4

https://www.statnews.com/2018/01/08/flu-virus-h3n2/

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cathalwalsh.bsky.social•8 days ago

Another possibility is that older population is less frail / vulnerable now due to impact of pandemic?

michaelsfuhrer.bsky.social•7 days ago

I think it's a small effect. Just to give an idea, the population in the US over 65 has grown by 7 million since 2020, despite the pandemic. But it is a real effect. Not sure how to estimate how big.

cathalwalsh.bsky.social•7 days ago

Yes - but some older people who would otherwise now be sick with flu didn’t survive the pandemic. Ergo a lower hospitalisation rate than expected otherwise?

michaelsfuhrer.bsky.social•7 days ago

Yes, it's a real effect, but hard to estimate its size. Are older people in the US really now healthier on average after the pandemic than before? Is life expectancy longer?

(My gut feeling is that this is overwhelmed by other changes, especially in 2025, 3+ years after peak pandemic deaths.)

cathalwalsh.bsky.social•7 days ago

Yes! If you were 60 at the start of the pandemic and lived through the pandemic you are more likely to live longer than the average person in your cohort - because you are ‘hardier’.

michaelsfuhrer.bsky.social•6 days ago

Yes, I understand your hypothesis, but it is at odds with the data. Life expectancy in US at age 65 in 2023 was identical to that in 2019, 19.5 years.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db395.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db521.htm

michaelsfuhrer.bsky.social•7 days ago

Similarly, you could argue there should be a *higher* death rate in 65+, as the average age of a person 65+ in the US is higher now than in 2017 (and they're all lumped in one bin). Which effect matters more? I don't know.

michaelsfuhrer.bsky.social•7 days ago

(That last example can be corrected for by age-adjustment, but it's not trivial! And not done in the data we're looking at.)

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