Le Monde breaks it down amazingly well: —Left candidates: 132 dropped out 5 did not drop out in districts with an RN threat —Macronists: 81 dropped out 16 didn't in "threat" districts —Conservatives didn't care: 3 dropped out 12 didn't lemonde.fr/les-decodeur... - ThreadSky

taniel.bsky.social • 288 days ago

Le Monde breaks it down amazingly well:

—Left candidates:
132 dropped out
5 did not drop out in districts with an RN threat

—Macronists:
81 dropped out
16 didn't in "threat" districts

—Conservatives didn't care:
3 dropped out
12 didn't

https://lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2024/07/02/legislatives-2024-pour-faire-barrage-au-rn-195-candidats-et-candidates-se-sont-deja-desistes-suivez-le-decompte-en-temps-reel_6245837_4355771.html

Comments

seasouthern.bsky.social•288 days ago

Gaullists allying with Vichyists. Go back fifty years and try and explain that, LOL.

anatsuno.bsky.social•288 days ago

Those respective proportions are exactly what I’d’ve expected. Fucking right-wingers man (I’m including the president’s party in this designation of course)

taniel.bsky.social•288 days ago

This amount of coalescing against the far-right by no means looked certain as of a week ago.

While it can't just erase Macronists' extraordinarily equivocating 'pox on both houses' rhetoric during the campaign, it does make it a lot harder for the far-right to win on Sunday.

penguinguy.bsky.social•288 days ago

If the left voters all switch to the macronists in two way races, and vice versa, what are the expected seat totals?

taniel.bsky.social•288 days ago

If it really was all or near all on both sides, that'd make plunge the RN 'only' win something like... 140 seats maybe?

But such perfect or even near perfect vote transfers is just VERY unrealistic. It's just not happening.

davidmack.bsky.social•287 days ago

Is there any reasonable chance that the far-right might be prevented from taking majority control? Or that the far-right's opposition will have enough seats to form a coalition government to block RN?

benpiggot.bsky.social•287 days ago

thats what he's saying - a RN (far right) majority now looks much more unlikely than even 4-5 days ago

davidmack.bsky.social•287 days ago

Okay, then. I will cling to that wee morsel of hope.

bunghole.bsky.social•287 days ago

The Harris/Challenges poll today put the RN in the 190-220 vicinity, which * seems * about right given the consolidation efforts over the past couple days. Hard to forecast 500 races.

taniel.bsky.social•287 days ago

I did a seat by seat prediction yesterday and ended up in that range.

lawnerd.bsky.social•287 days ago

Is that enough to give RN the prime ministership?

ianbobmorris.bsky.social•288 days ago

neat

stephen-morrison.bsky.social•288 days ago

It's also exactly the key to saving democracy that Levitsky & Ziblatt suggest in 'How Democracies Die." And a nice bright spot in a pretty bleak global political landscape.

johnquiggin.bsky.social•288 days ago

Maybe not so bad that conservatives stayed in. Their voters just as likely to go to RN as to Macron, and more likely if RN vs left.

shamatha.bsky.social•288 days ago

Your reporting on the French election has been illuminating and much needed. Thank you.

droopyters.bsky.social•288 days ago

How does the number / percentage of dropouts compare to previous elections with a strong RN showing?

taniel.bsky.social•288 days ago

The number of 3-way and 4-ways in itself is extraordinarily unique.

There were 8 in 2022; 1 in 2017. There were going to be 311 this year.

This is to a great extent a matter of higher turnout because this is indexed to turnout effectively.

jdp23.thenexus.today•288 days ago

There's obviously something I'm missing ... I understand how the number of 3+-ways relates to the number of candidates in a race (so the NPF running just one candidate increased it), but why is getting 12.5% of low turnout less likely than 12.5% of high turnout?

snakeling.bsky.social•288 days ago

Because it's not at least 12.5% of the actual voters, but 12.5% of the registered voters. So you need a minimum of a 37.5% turnout for a 3-way race, and a typical constituency (in a normal election) will have 6-10 candidates, with lots of small parties getting at least a few dozen votes.

jdp23.thenexus.today•288 days ago

Thanks! That is in fact what I was missing: I thought it was 12.5% of the *actual* voters. It's now clear, much appreciated!

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