This characterization in the Heatmap article is also… not accurate. Unless PJM abrogates open access and pushes this project to the front of the queue, it will go through the same study process as every other project. It may very well require large network upgrades. - ThreadSky

tnorris.bsky.social • 81 days ago

This characterization in the Heatmap article is also… not accurate. Unless PJM abrogates open access and pushes this project to the front of the queue, it will go through the same study process as every other project. It may very well require large network upgrades.

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bsmithwood.bsky.social•81 days ago

First fusion plant will be basically be in my backyard in Devens, MA …if it works

geldof.bsky.social•81 days ago

Well if there's one thing we know about PJM, it's that they would never ditch open access to favor some resources over others.

tnorris.bsky.social•81 days ago

Indeed it’s entirely plausible, especially if governors and other politicians are pressing to favor certain resources over others because they’ve cut favorable economic development deals with said resources

tnorris.bsky.social•81 days ago

In summary: we can applaud fusion progress while maintaining a grounded view on its likelihood of scaling on a commercially relevant timescale for US load growth. The Virginia announcement is a land contract. We hope it someday becomes a reactor. Many uncertainties and challenges remain.

stshank.bsky.social•81 days ago

Beware fusion pessimism as well as hype.

We (I'm at CFS) expect net fusion power from SPARC in 2027. We have reason to be confident, e.g. smart engineers & peer-reviewed research. Our Virginia move isn't yet watts on the grid, but it's much more than a land contract. https://cfs.energy/technology/publications

tnorris.bsky.social•81 days ago

Thanks Stephen - I have much respect for anyone willing to work on hard energy tech. I’m also a realist who has spent 15+ yrs now (including 4yrs in tech to market at USDOE) witnessing in-numerous hard energy tech ventures fail, especially in the power sector.

stshank.bsky.social•80 days ago

100%. None of this is easy. But one of the things that drew me to CFS was the operational rigor across the company. Engineering processes, design reviews, testing everything for manufacturing improvements, validating our computer models with tests... No guarantees, but we're not a bunch of jokers.

tnorris.bsky.social•81 days ago

Regarding the CFS Virginia announcement, the only new development I can discern is the siting decision. That’s what I meant when I said the announcement appears to be a land contract. If there’s something else *new* here, please do correct me.

nymne.bsky.social•80 days ago

I think you need to think of it as a process that has several steps to it not just and on/off button you press for net fusion power onput.
Having a physical location is a necessary step in the process, don’t you think? What are you so angry about? Maybe this topic is a bit too emotional for you

stshank.bsky.social•80 days ago

Among other things, we also have an agreement with Dominion Energy Virginia for exchange of expertise — they have experience with the many details of getting power plants onto the grid, we have experience with fusion. A utility connection like this is important.

tnorris.bsky.social•81 days ago

What I’d love to see from CFS is a clear milestone schedule that gets you to COD by early 2030s - including licensing, permitting, offtake, procurement, interconnection, construction. I’m all for BHAGs but this one would appear to have maybe ~5% chance of success (i.e. ~95% chance of COD post-2034)

nymne.bsky.social•80 days ago

Are you upset about this? How can this trigger so much anger? We may see productive fusion before 2040 instead of 2050 and this is great!
I thing it is easier to take these things at face value when you learn to deal with your own emotions of frustration and disappointment

tnorris.bsky.social•80 days ago

Example: https://bsky.app/profile/tnorris.bsky.social/post/3ldlharflmc27

GreenFire.mstdn.social.ap.brid.gy•81 days ago

@tnorris.bsky.social
It's going to take at least 10 years, if we're "lucky" to build that new technology power plant that will add 400 MW to the grid.

We installed 10 GW of solar just this quarter I'd like to point out.

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