A tariff fueled trade war causes inflation. I’d think recession as well particularly how close to that we are anyway. Recessions are deflationary. Do we come out the other side with flat prices and a smaller GDP? It’d encourage domestic production, but skeptical that can grow quickly enough.
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Contentious as heck and tough to answer, for context I think these tariffs are an attempt to shift toward a pre-Woodrow Wilson economy, where government revenue was tariff-based instead of income-tax-based, which could generate more revenue BUT will come at a cost of the working class.
Of course, prices will be higher. A cost will be passed onto consumers, corporate operations will be restructured, jobs will be cut, and a big shift of the world will take place. This + rolling back environment regs, the working man is probably f'd, with wage and wealth gaps widening.
From a market perspective, I'm pretty sure the economy will do "better" numbers wise because we'll be forced to pay more for inelastic goods.
And to concretly touch on GDP, GDP is calculated using PCE + Domestic Investment + Government Expenses + (Exports-Imports).
Based on how GDP is calc'd, it may go up because consumers will have to spend more, company's will have to invest more in infrastructure, and our net imports may go down, having our exports weigh out the imports.
Even when offset but lower govt expenses, GDP may net go up based on these tail winds, but again, at the cost of the common individual.
Sorry for the word/brain dump but I too am trying to weigh out all the factors, open to more considerations!