just a hunch, but based on what happened during covid, i think we're about to see a lot of industries use the chaos surrounding Trump's tariffs as cover to engage in illegal supply restrictions and and price-fixing - ThreadSky

david.noll.org • 94 days ago

just a hunch, but based on what happened during covid, i think we're about to see a lot of industries use the chaos surrounding Trump's tariffs as cover to engage in illegal supply restrictions and and price-fixing

Reposted from George Pearkes

*ARABICA COFFEE CLIMBS TO HIGHEST SINCE 1997 ON SUPPLY WORRIES

Comments

fiesty1.bsky.social•94 days ago

📌

michaelmirer.bsky.social•94 days ago

As people are searching for the one simple trick Harris could have done to win, the answer is probably to build a time machine and go back to 2023 and tell the new Senate Democratic majority to haul in CEOs in price-hiking industries for hearings.

mavill.bsky.social•94 days ago

probably right, but coffee is one of the most vulnerable commodities to climate change - that's just, the future.

allena-bryanne.bsky.social•94 days ago

100%

Saw this and and remembered I just had a discussion with my (of course) climate skeptical (reality denying) boomer parents about this this weekend. Like, you know that coffee and chocolate you love? Well it’s gonna get WAY more expensive, and that’s leaving out the tariffs.

fups.bsky.social•94 days ago

From my understanding this market move is a reaction to the USDA global coffee production report, noting lower projected volumes from Brazil and Indonesia.

Forecasting isn’t likely to change but the thought right now is that this is a peak, not above 2011 (inflation adjusted) maximums.

adamlees.bsky.social•94 days ago

Consumption is way up as well, pushing the longterm. And robusta London futures are near-record highs as well. And drought isnt just in Brazil, its been in other major growing regions as well, such as Vietnam. Thats before you even factor in the economic uncertainties.

It’s bleak.

fups.bsky.social•94 days ago

We’re not even close to peak market adjusted for inflation.. we’re like.. maybe 15% of the way there? Try paying $20/lb for green coffee in 2024 dollars and we’re getting there…

adamlees.bsky.social•94 days ago

Brutal, but you’re exactly right. I didnt even consider it in that obvious way.

fups.bsky.social•94 days ago

I don’t want to be right, though 😢

But truly, a higher market is going to be good for a lot of folks in Brazil/Vietnam. Less so in countries that already have naturally high differential pricing, but I like it for Indonesia as their coffees are coming into parity, with the lower differentials..

soggywhitebread.bsky.social•94 days ago

The Shock Doctrine, baby!

misword.bsky.social•94 days ago

it's all so unforgivably stupid on the part of ... absolutely everyone in this country.

orwellonedibles.bsky.social•94 days ago

We’ll also see hedge funds that have absolutely nothing to do with the coffee industry gobbling up futures contracts to drive the price even higher

Our markets are completely corrupt and broken and have been for years now.

hoptimusprime.bsky.social•94 days ago

it's fine, it's not as if starbucks has 68 zillion locations in the US alone that makes them inextricably tied to the health of the real estate market too, let's see what happens when lattes cost $58

finagle-a-hegel.bsky.social•94 days ago

Yes this is a golden opportunity for tacit coordination (and, for a select few, also a time for very dumb things being said at industry get-togethers that come out later during the criminal trial)

kylewoodley.bsky.social•94 days ago

And given that the incoming administration is likely to defang anyone who would do anything about it, can’t say I even blame them at this point.

scorpionmeg.bsky.social•94 days ago

RIP nonprofits

nathrach.bsky.social•93 days ago

Market open is not far away it will be fun to see a trump crash on thanksgiving week, add some spice to the holiday

annabellelecter.bsky.social•94 days ago

It's already happening https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-major-retailers-raise-prices-150119217.html

nullinterface.bsky.social•94 days ago

Worry not - there will be countless pieces written in the likes of the NTY by esteemed columnists and incoherent FB posts by marginally-employed redhat types alike defending the divide rights of billionaires to openly seek rent - because it can only be good for the consumer

jonathanstern.bsky.social•94 days ago

no this is climate change https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/rains-may-have-come-too-late-brazils-coffee-2024-10-17/

schroedinger.bsky.social•94 days ago

Including companies that are purely domestic.

zsrozales.bsky.social•94 days ago

amd the lack of enforcement for the trump admin on things like this will give them the green light...

transarchivist.bsky.social•94 days ago

📌

chuff.bsky.social•94 days ago

I’m no economist or business guy, but I’d be surprised if companies didn’t look at the recent inflation and determine exactly how much more they can charge in each market to maximize profits while minimizing risk, making us all fight for rice or TP.

corpkiller.bsky.social•94 days ago

Well, the Department of Justice would never allow… oh

david.noll.org•94 days ago

and of course, there will be no antitrust enforcement against firms/industries that are not Trump's political enemies

toddaago.bsky.social•94 days ago

And he's gonna blame Biden.

roe2u.bsky.social•94 days ago

Watch quarterly returns. If they are "struggling with tariffs," but somehow returning a nice profit, somebody's lying!

zugernat.bsky.social•94 days ago

My only solace is that the non-oligarch MAGA fools will suffer along with the rest of us.

farkel.bsky.social•94 days ago

Ironically (or, maybe, not...), this graph looks *exactly* like Dolt J's hand-written specs for it! 🤔

macmuiris.bsky.social•94 days ago

It's the American way.

otlee.bsky.social•94 days ago

Companies figured this out and will do it until the end of time for n the absence of legislation

miekeskylady.bsky.social•94 days ago

I will start a movement called "No tariff on my coffee"

Who is with me!

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