Suggestive evidence of late undecideds tipping to Harris by about 2 to 1. - ThreadSky

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owasow.bsky.social • 116 days ago

Suggestive evidence of late undecideds tipping to Harris by about 2 to 1.

In our NORC panel, it's clear that Harris built support relative to where Biden was in the late winter.

Harris retained the vast majority of Biden's Feb./Mar. supporters but won over 36% of those who were undecided vs. 18% going to Trump in Sept./Oct.

Comments

pykeredrock.bsky.social•116 days ago

Also discernible: Looks like a slightly larger share of Trump voters flipped to Harris than would-have-been Biden voters flipped to Trump.

gradin15.bsky.social•116 days ago

Vote

vurnt22.bsky.social•116 days ago

Your mouth to god’s deaf inhuman ear!

ivandragomiloff.bsky.social•116 days ago

Trump's mouth definitely helped with this.

owasow.bsky.social•116 days ago

Among Black subjects surveyed in both Feb/Mar and Sept/Oct, 10% of “Don’t knows” shift to Harris and 1% shift to Trump. https://bsky.app/profile/dhopkins1776.bsky.social/post/3l7sytiihry2n

owasow.bsky.social•116 days ago

Minor clarification to prior post, 10% of *all* Black subjects go from “Don’t know” to Harris and 1% from “Don’t know” to Trump.

owasow.bsky.social•116 days ago

For Haley supporters surveyed in both Feb/Mar and Sept/Oct, data suggests 52% “come home” to Trump, but support for Harris also increases to about 33%. If true, in close races, those Haley->Harris voters could be pivotal. https://bsky.app/profile/dhopkins1776.bsky.social/post/3l7obnrexev2s

owasow.bsky.social•116 days ago

Big takeaway from these survey results? Follow @dhopkins1776.bsky.social

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