Beruhigende Nachricht zur Sterblichkeit, beunruhigende zur Verbreitung und Adaptation von H5N1 Vogelgrippe beim Menschen!
Wird der Kelch an uns vorübergehen?
Will this cup of suffering be taken away from us?
My understanding is that both the Missouri and California cases were reported as identified as H5 via surveillance testing which I think is not appreciated enough, ie not prompted by other features eg clinical.
H5N1 infection is ideal now. Builds herd immunity with mild disease. Human flu virus is attenuated for the live attenuated influenza vaccine by propagating it in birds! (Chicken egg). Here we have nature offering a live "attenuated" virus already grown in birds. Nature's safe/effective "vaccine".
I recommend the following subpage, where all cases in the USA are currently logged. In addition to the 2 unusual cases due to unclear transmission in the States (and the case from Canada), there have already been 53 other H5N1 cases in humans in 2024.
However, the transmission is considered clear here. This does not make matters any better, on the contrary, in combination with the rising influenza infections, a nice cocktail is brewing.
H5N1 infection is ideal now. Builds herd immunity with mild disease. Human flu virus is attenuated for the live attenuated influenza vaccine by propagating it in birds! (Chicken egg). Here we have nature offering a live "attenuated" virus already grown in birds. Nature's safe/effective "vaccine".
Increasingly so, though Jesse reposted Scott’s thread on X, but the primary action is increasingly here. As Adam says, plenty of denial on the other site…
Although the whole H5N1 situation is concerning, I can't agree with your statement, "In short, such a mutation could mean the virus is becoming better adapted to humans." Thus far each human case has been a dead-end meaning any mutations that arise do not persist or accumulate in the birds or cows.
Furthermore the Canadian case was a long (severe) infection and the mutations seem to be a mixture suggesting they likely arose in that individual - so again cannot be seen as a process by which the virus is adapting to humans.
Each human case is an independent roll of the dice where, if the virus doesn't get the mutations it needs to achieve sustained human to human transmission, it is back to square one.
This does mean there isn't an inevitability of emergence into humans if people's exposure to the virus is reduced and the measures are taken to stop the spread the cows. Although, the Canadian case has a virus that was previously only detected in birds.
I completely agree that everything we're seeing doesn't mean the chance of transmission and pandemic is imminent. Statistically, it would require many more "dice rolls" of the virus. We're might even see a step of terminal branches in humans, without it leading to an epidemic.
This doesn't mean the danger isn't significant. In assessing the danger, we must consider not just the probability but also the risk. The risk here is enormous - so even when multiplied by small probabilities, from my POV it should justifies raising warning flags now.
Thanks, realise could have been clearer there. Didn't mean circulating population of viruses in animals is becoming better adapted to humans (given lack of ongoing H2H chains, as you say) - rather, singleton human case detected with a mutation that could potenitally make it better adapted to humans.
Better adapted to that human, certainly. Long infections give the virus the opportunity to adapt by evading elicited immunity (or that might be the cause of the long infection). The crux is whether those mutations also (coincidentally) enhance transmission between humans.
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Wird der Kelch an uns vorübergehen?
Will this cup of suffering be taken away from us?
https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html