Such a scenario could be disruptive for #Russia's network of influence in #Africa, of which Tartus and Hmeimim were the main conduits to funnel military equipment and fighters to #AfricaCorps. Often via #Libya, a hub for Kremlin's activities in Africa. /4 www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder... - ThreadSky

profazio.bsky.social • 83 days ago

Such a scenario could be disruptive for #Russia's network of influence in #Africa, of which Tartus and Hmeimim were the main conduits to funnel military equipment and fighters to #AfricaCorps. Often via #Libya, a hub for Kremlin's activities in Africa. /4 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/africa-file-special-edition-syria’s-potential-impact-russia’s-africa-and-mediterranean

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profazio.bsky.social•83 days ago

At the same time, it is highly likely that #Russia will double down on #Libya just for the same reason. Talks have been going on for quite some time about a naval base in #Tobruk, which happens to be a deep-water port on which Moscow has set its sights. /5 https://www.defensenews.com/global/mideast-africa/2024/02/02/what-military-advantage-could-russia-get-out-of-libya/

profazio.bsky.social•83 days ago

Negotiations with Gen. Khalifa Haftar, in control of eastern Libya, have been conducted by the Russian Deputy Defence Minister Yunus Bek-Yevkurov, who also oversaw the transformation of the #WagnerGroup into #AfricaCorps. His last visit to #Benghazi was last month. /6 https://libyareview.com/50729/haftar-russian-officials-discuss-counterterrorism-cooperation-in-libya/

profazio.bsky.social•83 days ago

The likelihood of a relocation of Russian vessels from Tartus to Tobruk might be of high concern for Western capitals that have intensified surveillance in the #EastMed. In the last few days #US drones have been hovering around, particularly over #Tobruk. /7 https://www.itamilradar.com/2024/12/04/blackcat-monitoring-syria-and-libya/

profazio.bsky.social•83 days ago

Right at the same time the Cham Wings Airline was transferring former officers of the Assad regime from #Syria to #Benina airport in #Benghazi. Reports indicated that, before their final transfer to #Russia, they would have made a stop at the al-Jufra airbase. /8 https://libyaobserver.ly/inbrief/several-assad-regime-officers-arrive-libyas-benghazi

profazio.bsky.social•83 days ago

An uptick in activity has been recently recorded in al-Jufra, as well as at the Brak al-Shati and Ghardabiya airbases, where paramilitary forces from #Russia have carried out revamping and renovations, possibly in preparation for the relocation of military forces there. /9
https://bsky.app/profile/profazio.bsky.social/post/3lckkbquvo22h

profazio.bsky.social•83 days ago

What's next? As #Russia is busy laying the groundwork for an expansion in #Libya following its #Syria demise, much will depend on how things play out between Haftar and Putin. Haftar might have been impressed by the fall of Assad, as pointed out here. /10 https://www.africaintelligence.com/north-africa/2024/12/11/what-assad-s-fall-means-for-libya-s-haftar-clan,110350051-art

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