Am not saying I'm a fan of this measure in isolation. But I was not a fan of the fiscal delusion that went before. I'm just keen on something complete that looks at this sort of thing in the round 7/7
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Agree with all this. But is the OBR view that far from what you're arguing here? Small labour supply effect on potential; some crowding out of investment from overall fiscal expansion; negligible growth impact in SR, positive in LR
Currently U.K. economy needs extra 300,000 workers from abroad per year.
Very likely the raise in the NI will result in significant job losses, but the economy will absorb them; but the consequence is lower migration (and lower growth that comes with this).
Will there be significant job losses? More likely to be slightly smaller wage increases/bonuses, a bit less recruitment for very large firms (although as we have v little unemployment, most recruitment is just shuffling people from one company to another)
I haven't been paying enough attention to pushback but it seems most vocal objections (and slightly hysterical) come from hospitality and similar businesses (high employee no.'s, often low-wage relatively) but as you say, they're not prone to big investments. Discourse lacking from other sectors
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Currently U.K. economy needs extra 300,000 workers from abroad per year.
Very likely the raise in the NI will result in significant job losses, but the economy will absorb them; but the consequence is lower migration (and lower growth that comes with this).
In education the impact is zero or minimal as teachers will move from private schools to public schools where kids are relocating.
NHS: likely most money will go on salaries and current private providers with excess capacity.