"Some forecasts suggested UK GDP could be reduced by as much as 10% over the long term (2030 or so). Recently: The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change estimated in Feb 2023 that the impact could already be 5.5%. This year (Feb 2024) Goldman Sachs estimated the impact was already at 5%." - ThreadSky

mikegalsworthy.bsky.social • 88 days ago

"Some forecasts suggested UK GDP could be reduced by as much as 10% over the long term (2030 or so). Recently:

The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change estimated in Feb 2023 that the impact could already be 5.5%.

This year (Feb 2024) Goldman Sachs estimated the impact was already at 5%."

Comments

robinthemint.bsky.social•88 days ago

Starmer attitude to Brexit is deeply flawed and puzzling. He should stop pandering to the few Brexit Labour supporters left and put rejoining centre place of a new approach by Labour in order to achieve the growth he seeks but is doomed to fail to achieve without joining the single market at least

chrismo76.bsky.social•88 days ago

I think they feel it’s just picking at an open wound. I’d love us to rejoin but I’m not sure the British public as a whole are up for reopening that can of worms right now.

robinthemint.bsky.social•88 days ago

Polling suggests otherwise but in any event the disastrous impact of Brexit particularly on growth is clear. What is missing is the political will to teach and lead the British public back into the inevitable large single market on our doorstep. Gravity wins.

robinthemint.bsky.social•88 days ago

Polling suggest a considerable pro EU shift since the referendum.

shartford.bsky.social•88 days ago

Even less are they open to contemplating the ever-closer fiscals union with the euro. Rejoining anything is decades away if not politically impossible for the EU at least.

chrismo76.bsky.social•88 days ago

We had a great deal with lots of opt outs where we wanted to diverge. Chucked it all for a worst of both worlds ‘deal’. The offer if we ever got one from the EU would be pretty vanilla. They don’t need us like we need them.

robinthemint.bsky.social•88 days ago

Now I think that is a defeatist rather than realistic. Politically it would be an extraordinarily positive event for the EU for Brexit to be finally defeated with our rejoining the EU. All sources I have seen suggests they miss our political input and would welcome the return of the UK.

shartford.bsky.social•85 days ago

Sure. We would welcome a UK that did not come asking for special deals and had 70% support for the ever-closer (fiscal) union with the euro.

shartford.bsky.social•88 days ago

There is nothing economically significant for them to achieve the growth available for the EU. Why would they hand themselves on that?

shartford.bsky.social•88 days ago

No it is not. I lived in the UK for 8 years. I knew the UK was going to vote out, because so far half of the remainers/rejoiners are euro-skeptics. The remain campaign's problem was that it was anti-EU.

ianhardie.bsky.social•88 days ago

This time next year we will be 60% down on automotive employment, by February 2026 that will be 75%.

That's pretty much down to world trends as governments set unrealistic targets in EVs, and brands disappear.

That is a reality everyone has to accept.

motosunburn.bsky.social•88 days ago

Look, I'd love to go right back in but I've accepted it ain't gonna happen this generation and you need to stop banging your head on the wall about it too. Baby steps, and we may never go all the way. If we try to run we could fall over and undo all the good work.

jonathanmlewis.bsky.social•88 days ago

Mea culpa works for me.

borislong.bsky.social•88 days ago

Would GDP be better if the UK was in the EU? Indubitably. Would this have an effect on poverty? Demonstrably not. If governments were committed to improving the lot of the general population, Brexit wouldn't have happened in the first place. 6th richest country regardless. This needs addressing 1st.

shartford.bsky.social•88 days ago

Of course, because the UK economy has been largely based on services trade (as in the magic money tree). Without Brexit, UK trade figures would not be hampered. Even the energy price would be better.

Distribution of wealth in the UK is not an EU problem, there we agree.

muttispeaks.bsky.social•87 days ago

Time to start a ‘Pro-EU’ party. We’ve had the Brexit Party, Reform, Tories & Labour. Lib Dems are the only Pro EU party & get no coverage. There is a gaping hole in UK politics.

smfbooth.bsky.social•88 days ago

Starmer needs to tell the British people that they are x% poorer because of Brexit - it’s what the majority voted for and no trade deals with the US, Australia, NZ, CPTPP will make up the trade difference.

philosophical-phil.bsky.social•88 days ago

If only he had the charisma ..

shartford.bsky.social•88 days ago

If only that would have convinced anybody to start with.

Going back to the EU would require more being apart of the ever-closer union. I've not seen any significant apatite for that in the UK so far.

smfbooth.bsky.social•88 days ago

Personally, I think Starmer has dodged explaining the consequences.

smfbooth.bsky.social•88 days ago

It’s arguable that it would make no difference but ‘don’t try’ is a pitiful stance.

shartford.bsky.social•88 days ago

As an EU citizen I think the UK already played it's pitiful card of having membership benefits without the obligations. The UK was never a part of the ever-closer union. That's the union it would need to rejoin. I can't see it happening.

ivorbolakov.bsky.social•88 days ago

5% loss of GDP for 9 years was the prediction of Patrick Minford in his 'if we leave the EU' plan.

Shame no one bothered to read or understand it

shartford.bsky.social•88 days ago

As a bit of a non-economist nerd, I've been following this. Adam Posen is of the opinion that the 4% decline is likely to be an underestimation. The UK government estimate was based on the assumption that the UK would have FTAs with China, the US & dozen other fast growing economies by 2019...

johntonks.bsky.social•88 days ago

The satire Gulliver’s Travels pales into insignificance when compared to the political stupidity of today.

jamesdankworth.bsky.social•88 days ago

Take back control of our huge immigration numbers by rejoining the SM, CU with FoM.

That'll sell.

chrismo76.bsky.social•88 days ago

If we went back to the levels when we were members then that alone would be a huge reduction. The Tories conned people with their Brexit.

shartford.bsky.social•88 days ago

Indeed. You had huge immigration numbers even if the EU migration that the Brexit vote was all about went into negative. So, yes, more immigration is not a vote winner unless one is imbecilic and does not understand that education & salary policy are & were always UK policies.

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