3. This, I suspect, is how Donald Trump sees the situation: Russia is no threat to US political and economic hegemony. He and Putin are natural allies and will reinforce each other's power. But Europe could be. So he’ll use Russia to threaten, tie up and, potentially, dismantle the EU. - ThreadSky

georgemonbiot.bsky.social • 2 days ago

3. This, I suspect, is how Donald Trump sees the situation: Russia is no threat to US political and economic hegemony. He and Putin are natural allies and will reinforce each other's power. But Europe could be. So he’ll use Russia to threaten, tie up and, potentially, dismantle the EU.

Comments

ledredman.bsky.social•2 days ago

That Trump and Putin share the same politics and world outlook is undeniable. It's baffling to me that people couldn't see this earlier.

nortl.bsky.social•1 day ago

EU know who they are dealing with in Putin, just in shock with Trump’s involvement, too different scenarios, Russia is a country with no citizens freedom, USA just sorting out the players, Democracy is ingrained in the American Soul, America will always stand with Democracy

westmanajay.bsky.social•2 days ago

The U.K. and EU have to rapidly invest and build a credible European defence deterrent to replace the leaving US forces. This will take a lot of cash and co-ordination and is an urgent task

mylorjames.bsky.social•2 days ago

Do we, in this scenario, need to increase nuclear arms and change policy to provide a European umbrella? Hideous thought. But…?

alpinemigrant.bsky.social•2 days ago

It's that or become a plaything of tyrants. Make your mind up time, indeed.

alectorious.bsky.social•2 days ago

I think it makes sense from in an amoral sense for the US to befriend Russia so as to loosen its links with both China and Iran - weakening both powers being a priority for the US. On this basis its understandable unfortunately.

jamesjenner.bsky.social•2 days ago

The obvious solution since we can't kick the US out of NATO is to rapidly make a new alliance analogous to NATO that disincludes the US and some other states like Hungary. Then NATO becomes less relevant.

rgrusin.bsky.social•2 days ago

I think this misses out on the fact that Putin clearly has a hold over Trump. He is, as Hilary Clinton pointed out, Putin’s puppet.

perryfin.bsky.social•2 days ago

Iraq, strength of the Euro and vulnerability of the dollar highlighted that. Hence brexit.

georgemonbiot.bsky.social•2 days ago

4. If Putin overruns Ukraine – I mean all of it – as he surely will if he receives active US support, he can then present an ultimatum to other frontline member states: leave the EU, leave NATO and become a client state like Belarus, or you’re next.

neroden.bsky.social•2 days ago

You vastly overrate the US military's abilities. First Trump, or "Agent Krasnov", as we now know his KGB codename, would have to convince the US military to go along with this. But then... the US military has lost practically every war since 1953. That said, Europe must prepare!

georgemonbiot.bsky.social•2 days ago

5. Orbán might agree to this. If Georgescu wins in Romania, he might too. The EU is then dead in all but name. (I’m assuming that NATO has already passed away, dying on 19 February 2025, though the certificate won’t be issued for a while).

adrianshort.org•2 days ago

Related to this is that Europe needs to rapidly remove its dependency on US tech services. In the short term the risks are mostly of disruption due to instability within the US. In the medium to long term there's a high risk that these systems will be actively weaponised against us.

adrianshort.org•2 days ago

Hungary should be booted from the EU regardless. They're an insider threat. The EU would be stronger without them.

richardclose.bsky.social•2 days ago

Hungary would certainly be given Transcarpathia in this case, it has already been discussed.

dendrorodbale.bsky.social•2 days ago

Unfortunately id say you’re 💯 correct. Trying to see the aspirations of Trump/Putin (+Orban etc) any other way just feels like blinkered optimism at this stage.

lxciv.bsky.social•2 days ago

Be sure Georgescu will agree to that if he wins. He’s a puppet. Hopefully he won’t win.

medvehagyma.bsky.social•2 days ago

It would be almost comic. Orbán's whole political career was founded on him as the 'brave' political rebel, standing up in public and proclaiming 'Russians go home!' (after they had already decided to leave), back in '89.

baronharkonnen.bsky.social•2 days ago

Hungary and Romania outside of the EU would not be the end of the EU. It would be the end of Hungary and Romania

hardkandy.bsky.social•2 days ago

Orban would be happy to be governor of the Hungarian republic for Putin, especially if he had no choice

wreckedvillein.bsky.social•2 days ago

NATO, in its current form is certainly severely-wounded. It could be revived under a future US President. However, NATO needs to reconfigure to a European defence pact, with perhaps Canadian support. There has to be a mutual defence pact in Europe; very unlikely there would be nothing.

georgemonbiot.bsky.social•2 days ago

6. European states (inc the UK) share intelligence with the US. This could now be the equivalent of sharing it with Putin. The US has multiple bases in our countries. The UK's nuclear weapons are dependent on the US for maintenance and prob more. If the US is our enemy, it's already inside the gates

sheilzz.bsky.social•1 day ago

All nukes nicely placed far away from London and next door to our largest city! Scotland is expendable😔
#ScottishIndependence #rejoinEU #bairnsnotbombs

keirasa.bsky.social•2 days ago

It's not just the European states sharing intel with the US. One has to wonder whether the Five Eyes Alliance is now dead.

sunvsice.bsky.social•2 days ago

Had that same thought. I have a severely nauseous feeling it’s too late…

simonwells.bsky.social•2 days ago

Blimey, George, you do love an apocalypse. Yes, we need to be ultra vigilant and yes, we are operating under new rules, but also, Trump has so far been lots of bluster on Ukraine and very little action. This is often his trademark.

the0point.bsky.social•2 days ago

Not on Ukraine. It was the centre of the impeachment. The links between Trump and Putin are too many. He never criticises him. And now with the fulfilment of the Project 2025 manifesto, it's quite clear what Trump is there to do.

georgemonbiot.bsky.social•2 days ago

Believe me Simon, I don't. But some of us need to sketch out the worst scenarios in the hope that people start preparing for them, rather than just hoping for the best.

17x2lizards.bsky.social•2 days ago

Yes, it has been his M.O., but consider the people he now is surrounded by, anarchists, nazis, and fascists that display delusions of grandeur, mental instability, and masochism. They weren't all in place before. They are all well financed now. and sustainable.

kristianravnkilde.bsky.social•2 days ago

Vandals, not anarchists. They are a completely different kettle of fish. 🏴

westmanajay.bsky.social•2 days ago

Surely with Tulsi Gabbards appointment the 5 eyes intelligence sharing must be under review in any case - the difficulty is replacing the lost US capability quickly

jamesgyke.bsky.social•2 days ago

Worth pointing out that UK does not actually own the Trident missiles it uses. The D5 missiles are leased from the US. Royal Navy subs need to travel to US port to restock. Much else of Trident UK purchases from US. This means UK's 'independent' strategic nuclear force is entirely dependent on US.

the0point.bsky.social•2 days ago

Still plenty of derring do though.

sheilzz.bsky.social•1 day ago

Yip...No wonder #Scotland wants out.
#ScottishIndependence #Endlondonrule #rejoinEU

jpearce37.bsky.social•2 days ago

I might be being naive but Steve Bannon always seemed a major player. He wants war and more importantly the spoils from the chaos it creates. A war against Europe is a natural pincer, but also a trade revenue stream. Is it more likely the US would turn on Putin because of the potential imbalance?

wreckedvillein.bsky.social•2 days ago

Yes, this is the biggest immediate threat. Russia is not in a state militarily to attack the rest of Europe, just now, and it will take time for them to rebuild. The intelligence-sharing is a big concern, though.

sylvie-62.bsky.social•2 days ago

And how will UK operate equipment that contains US components or even whole IS equipments - e.g. F35?

georgemonbiot.bsky.social•2 days ago

Yes, another good question.

sylvie-62.bsky.social•2 days ago

If it’s just licensing then perhaps we could ignore but with modern equipment, who knows? Would also require political will……..

pastpresented.bsky.social•2 days ago

Ironically, one major reason for expanding NATO eastward was that some nations, newly liberated from behind the Iron Curtain, were thinking in the 1990s that they would need to create their own nuclear deterrents

finl3y.bsky.social•2 days ago

It’s a total checkmate situation as far as I can see - if everyone turns on the US, Putin gets what he wants. If people persist with trying to bring Trump to heel, Putin will turn the screws on Trump

wookie909.bsky.social•2 days ago

That's because Trump has knackered the Western alliance. We needed to be able to trust each other, and now we can't. Putin will be overjoyed.

georgemonbiot.bsky.social•2 days ago

7. Is anyone ready for this? Plainly not. Is anyone gaming it? Aware of just what it means? Recognising that the shift is far more profound and consequential than ministers are admitting in public? I hope so. Does anyone have the faintest idea what to do? I doubt it.

the0point.bsky.social•2 days ago

The only recourse to any of this is if the international community starts acting like Trump isn't normal and speak out. And realising the danger he presents. But the EU and rest of the world has seen how absent rules and law are in light of how the US and Israel have treated the UN, ICC and ICJ.

the0point.bsky.social•2 days ago

Apparently latest information on avian flu is being withheld in the USA already, as seen on Planet America interview. With what the US has now walked away from on account of Trusk, it seems they've sowed long term diminishment from being leading global power.

sarahgriff.bsky.social•2 days ago

This is so defeatist and melodramatic. The EU can and will fight IF it has to and it absolutely can win and the European economy is just as large as US. The EU is hardly dead and when push comes to shove you know the UK will always side with the EU.

bwalsh.bsky.social•2 days ago

The fact that no European leaders seem to have anticipated Trump doing exactly what he clearly signalled he was going to do is very telling. Perhaps they were so culturally conditioned to assume a bellicose US Republican would automatically be anti-Russia that they couldn't conceive the opposite.

petemarchetto.bsky.social•2 days ago

I've had this thought myself, but still regard it as being at a more extreme and unlikely end of the spectrum of possible outcomes.

psbaker10.bsky.social•2 days ago

Never fear - Fukuyama has noticed something's up and it's personal!
https://www.persuasion.community/p/the-ultimate-betrayal

thebuell.bsky.social•2 days ago

Only a total and complete political destruction of Trump can force him out. Game the American economy to create the impetus on Congress and Seate to impeach the bastard.

metaphorqu.bsky.social•2 days ago

I think they do know, George. But when in power, it's important to try as many options as possible and work out the impact of each on the people they are responsible for. We can sit on the sidelines and state the obvious but I'm bloody glad not to be the PM right now.!

jessicajsalmon.bsky.social•2 days ago

If he seriously wants to take Canada and Greenland then would tying Europe up in a war with Russia be the easiest way?

rrrahul.bsky.social•2 days ago

George, I’m interested in how you reconcile the need for rearmament with the need to massively invest in eg sustainable energy, not to mention fixing public services. Politically as much as economically. Because of course we could raise the money thru wealth and inheritance taxes, but labours spin..

rrrahul.bsky.social•2 days ago

Will obviously be ‘you can’t have any nice things now, we need to spend all the money on bombs and recruiting your kids into the army’ (to put it crudely)

georgemonbiot.bsky.social•2 days ago

Please don't ask me to do everything. I'm just spelling out where I think this might be heading. If you want a budgeted manifesto, that would take longer, and require many minds.

wreckedvillein.bsky.social•2 days ago

Yes, they are, George. Plenty of analysts working on this; just read a joint report between the Kiel Institute and Bruegel on these very issues.

georgemonbiot.bsky.social•2 days ago

8. In answer to some of the responses:
a. No, of course I don't want this to happen! Just the opposite, which is why I'm sketching out the potential danger.
b. No, I have no idea how *likely* it is. But I feel it would be deeply foolish not to consider it.
c. No, I don't have a plan.

georgemonbiot.bsky.social•2 days ago

9. I greatly welcome your thoughts and ideas. Thanks.

stevebasnett.bsky.social•2 days ago

#8. Me too on a, b, and c, George. But we better get one, get one quick, and make sure it's a good one. Happily, this is one way to start putting a good plan together.

lizmurison.bsky.social•1 day ago

Is Starmer prepped for Thursday's meeting?

romza.bsky.social•2 days ago

Yes 100% and when Macron & Starmer are developing a plan for possible security guarantees for 🇺🇦, and say it will depend on 🇺🇸 to provide aircraft and intelligence, they obviously haven't realised what has happened yet. We can't share intelligence with the US anymore, it's like sharing it with the BND

stevebasnett.bsky.social•2 days ago

#7. The gulf between gaming and doing is vast. This'll sound funny to some, but there's a thing called status quo bias - and those who suffer from it like their personal situation as it is. But it could be horrendous for many. All of us, including them. And the planet. Action now is imperative.

w2jmf.bsky.social•2 days ago

How do you think Scotland feels? There on OUR shores, not yours!

garyinscotland.bsky.social•2 days ago

How do we feel, given our leaders sucked up to him, supporting police harassment of residents and the destruction of rare SSI's, pretty peeved in my case. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-48789620

lizmurison.bsky.social•1 day ago

Chilling - especially considering the number of 'trojan horse' sites established over the years.

danmacphail.bsky.social•1 day ago

We know from the Harry Dunne case that the CIA operates "RAF" Croughton. "RAF" Menwith Hill is the UK home of the NSA. I'm no longer sure they are our allies any more.

stevebasnett.bsky.social•2 days ago

#6. TrumpyMusk has turned the US 'leadership' into the enemy of the UK and much of the world. But I should be clear: the people of America are not the current US 'leadership'. Those standing up to their government are my natural friends. And, I suspect, the natural friends of many on Bluesky.

ecogenic.bsky.social•2 days ago

I think the often claimed 'US command' over the UK's nuclear deterrent has always lacked credibility beyond maintenance. It's designed to operate at the command of captain of the submarine. So it remains operational even in the event of Britain being annihilated. But let's close all open gates.

niall257.bsky.social•2 days ago

This seemed like an obvious Achilles heel when they were talking about this ‘Rolls Royce’ - the least they gave is a veto.

jhawker41.bsky.social•2 days ago

Overall I agree with everything you said except for one. I don't think our "allies" will share intelligence with us with a Russian agent in charge of National Intelligence.

w2jmf.bsky.social•2 days ago

This needs to stop. It should have stopped but more so now. CiA need to be asked to leave London. And vice versa. It’s done.

winter02.bsky.social•2 days ago

Yes Trident though independently launched, is leased and has technical support from the USA. Maybe the UK can adopt French M51 SLBM’s. The intelligence issue is a huge problem as is military bases.

ellyraying.bsky.social•2 days ago

I read an interesting piece about Trump potentially using AUKUS as a new (obviously US controlled NATO equivalent). DARC and other projects under this agreement put us in bed with the devil. The UK government has already picked its side.

stevebasnett.bsky.social•2 days ago

#5. Despite the seriousness, and I believe correct analysis, thanks, George - your '...certificate...' wording here has actually made me laugh. How have you done that in such a serious moment we all need to consider? Well done, sir.

ecogenic.bsky.social•2 days ago

Alternately, NATO becomes a European defence alliance overnight, following Trump's withdrawing of the US from NATO, which is highly likely given their reluctance to support international cooperation generally. Now Europe is being forced to invest in defence, beyond 5% of GDP, for its survival.

ecogenic.bsky.social•2 days ago

It sounds terrifying becuase it is. Whilst Europe invests in its defences, Trump and Putin need to be convinced Britain and France are prepared to use their nuclear deterrents to defend Europe. I know how terrible that would be, but these tyrants unchecked are already wilfully destroying the world.

ecogenic.bsky.social•2 days ago

Unfortunately, this is very far from an improbable scenario today. Europe, like any region of the world, any nation, has a right to defend itself from illegitimate attack by any means necessary. In reality, a Great Filter event due to psychopaths hijacking leadership roles for faux power and self.

ecogenic.bsky.social•2 days ago

These psychotics hijackers of civilisation express no leadership or even basic human qualities whatsoever. They're evil parasites. And they must be selected against whatever the costs. They must not be given the opportunity to cause more suffering than the end of the world.

stevebasnett.bsky.social•2 days ago

#4. Yep, it looks that way to me. There may be more to the plot we're not seeing yet, but I'm pretty sure that any which way it's not a plot in the interests of good, decent people or the natural world itself, right?

stevebasnett.bsky.social•2 days ago

#3. I see it the same way, Mr Monbiot. In fact I think it goes further and wider. But we must focus on the things we see right before our disbelieving eyes and work out what we can do. Can the collective minds of the planet who know how wrong this is harness together to work this one out, please?

stevebasnett.bsky.social•2 days ago

Huh, the very moment I posted this, I got a phone call from a number I don't know. I get a call maybe once every couple of weeks. If it was you trying to get in touch or... erm... harness minds, just send me a message and I'll be more than happy to connect.

jonty17.bsky.social•2 days ago

Trump is a Russian asset - the US now belongs to Putin. Can the US rid itself of this?

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