With China recently getting BESS bids at an average of $66.3 per kWh deployed... one has to wonder how close we are to having nearly fully dispatchable solar+storage plants in Sub-Saharan Africa with LCOEs under $100 per MWh. Has anyone done the math? - ThreadSky

offgridian.bsky.social • 47 days ago

With China recently getting BESS bids at an average of $66.3 per kWh deployed... one has to wonder how close we are to having nearly fully dispatchable solar+storage plants in Sub-Saharan Africa with LCOEs under $100 per MWh. Has anyone done the math?

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stephendh.bsky.social•46 days ago

Its worth noting too, that if the area currently has no or intermittent power; that that the specs for a new solar plus storage supply don't need to 100% match a perfect grid system. Should be much lower cost to provide a better but not perfect supply for almost all the time.

offgridian.bsky.social•46 days ago

Absolutely! This is more of a thought experiment to challenge the notion that RE can't play a significant role in countries with weaker grid infrastructure or limited capacity to integrate RE assets.

offgridian.bsky.social•47 days ago

On average, in Sub-Saharan Africa, during the lowest-insolation months, PV systems still generate ~75% of what they do in their best months. So an approximately 33% overbuild can make them seasonally 'firm'.

energykillian.bsky.social•46 days ago

Great question would love to see the numbers here also. This will come faster than folks think. Check out this project which runs the numbers for the US, up to 90 % clean firm off grid but more for data centres. https://www.offgridai.us/

offgridian.bsky.social•46 days ago

Hadn't seen this; thanks for sharing! I couldn't help but zip through to their cost assumptions, specifically for BESS. $291/kWh all-in (or over 4x those bids out of China). Surely this is going to come down fast.

energykillian.bsky.social•46 days ago

Good point, seems BESS costs are nose diving out of China and even hefty tariffs would still make their assumption look conservative.

offgridian.bsky.social•46 days ago

One more interesting data point: new tender winners in India for solar+2-hour BESS at $41/MWh. With double the BESS, you'd presumably still be well under $70/MWh. https://www.energy-storage.news/india-seci-reveals-solar-plus-storage-tender-winners-jsw-energy-appeals-cerc-tariff-decision/

energykillian.bsky.social•46 days ago

Super interesting, have been following the RTC tenders a bit in India. Also in EU, PPA are becoming more hydrid with single tech solar becoming a very hard sell in markets like Spain this shift is inevitable eventually

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