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energykillian.bsky.social
Power grid decarbonisation with focus on how carbon accounting, electricity markets, policy, PPAs and clean energy demand can drive grid decarb. CEO of NGO EnergyTag. Energy engineer and electro-intensive industry background. Irish born, Brussels based.
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@iea.org Electricity 2025 report out today. Electricity is increasingly the lifeblood of our economies. EU industrial prices are 2x the US and 1.5X China. Taxes, gas reliance, and inefficient renewable integration are all drivers. Solutions needed. iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/38a95...

@iea.org says "Today, utility-scale batteries paired with solar PV are already competitive with new coal plants in some countries like India. In just the next few years, batteries + solar will be cheaper than new natural gas plants in the US & new coal in China" (Source: x.com/iea/status/1...)

πŸ”ŒπŸ’‘ Google released a novel study on the lifecycle emissions of AI accelerator chips, showing a 3x improvement in the carbon-efficiency of AI workloads over two generations. We also report average market-based electricity emissions calculated on a 24/7 basis. More: cloud.google.com/blog/topics/...

Working on getting those prices down I see.

Trump demands to be the center of attention. It's hard not to see Trump 2.0 as the biggest energy story in the world. But China begs to differ: China built 277 GW of solar (877 GW total now!) & 80 GW of wind (521 GW total) in 2024. That, as Trump would say, is 'uge! electrek.co/2025/01/21/c... πŸ”ŒπŸ’‘

China is still Coal powered, and that keeps growing. Renewable expansion is rapid, but coal is still King.

Battery storage has often been built on the back of grid service revenues. In relatively mature markets like the UK, these revenues are drying up fast. Batteries will become more reliant on unpredictable energy arbitrage. Other revenue streams will be key (e.g 24/7 PPAs) #energysky

Very important point. I find a lot of unproductive discussions on wind and solar vs alternatives comes down to local variations like this. If you don't have dunkelflautes, or if you have enough transmission, you really can avoid the need for most (if not all) clean firm generation. πŸ”ŒπŸ’‘

Dunkelflaute - no wind, no sun for weeks - isn't an Australian problem. 42 years of weather data show widespread dips last hours or a day, never weeks. Winter monthly output has never been lower than 70% of average. Long duration energy storage... https://youtube.com/shorts/kiKCnACikpY?feature=share

The Biden administration has finalized rules for the IRA's lucrative β€” and contentious β€” clean hydrogen tax credits that hold fast on key climate safeguards, despite industry pushback. Will the Trump administration honor or undermine those safeguards? www.canarymedia.com/articles/hyd... #energysky

New NREL modelling of 61 scenarios of US power sector thru 2050 is out. Under a current policies mid case, solar and wind look set to dominate with nuclear and gas still very much in the mix and storage ramping significantly #energysky (1/n)

45v is solid for green hydrogen and also avoids the worst loopholes for blue hydrogen. EU regulators should take note as blue h2 rules are finalised here

Emily Grubert (@gruberte.bsky.social), Wilson Ricks (@wilsonar.bsky.social), and I wrote a short piece on the role of methane offsets in the final Β§ 45V hydrogen production tax credit rules. tl;dr safeguards in the new rules will avoid the worst-case outcomes, but offsetting remains open for new H2

#MustRead if you are in #AI and/or in #Energy

@mliebreich.bsky.social gives a masterful summary of Energy and AI, and good to get a call out. Given the significant load growth coming, we must get the carbon accounting right. Being really green is hard, claiming to be green is easy under today’s norms… about.bnef.com/blog/liebrei...

Final 45v Clean Hydrogen tax credit rules are out today. For electrolytic hydrogen, the three pillars of hourly matching, deliverability and incrementality remain despite some flexibilities. This will change clean power sourcing and accounting. home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...

At long last, the US Treasury Dept has finalized rules for the clean hydrogen tax credit (45V). home.treasury.gov/news/press-r... In general, the rules are based on a strong set of environmental safeguards to ensure "clean" hydrogen is truly clean & provide the certainty industry needs to build. πŸ”ŒπŸ’‘

EU Solar Deployment is crumbling. One of the key factors is declining capture rates due to a lack of flexibility in the system and and a lack of focus on system integration. PPAs and CfD must go more hydrid with storage from now on to integrate more solar api.solarpowereurope.org/uploads/Sola...

This is huge: China's refined oil consumption peaked in 2023, says the research arm of the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). Will decline 1.3% in 2024, despite ~4.8% GDP growth projected this year. Why? EVs! (Mostly) www.reuters.com/world/china/... πŸ”ŒπŸ’‘ πŸ”ŒπŸš—

Germany and energy. Two pictures: 1) Germany, like most of the EU has energy prices that are too high, volatile and reliant on imported gas. This is dragging it's economy down. 2) Germany does not invest enough. As investing in clean electricity is the ONLY way out of the bind, it must do more.

Consequential emissions analysis uses counterfactuals to estimate emissions avoided by an action. New NREL looks at this for the power sector. In theory, this is the best way to think about power sector interventions, BUT in practice, there is not good way yet (1/3)... www.nrel.gov/docs/fy25ost...

Ultimately the only way to make the transition a lock-in is to make fossil the expensive option. In the transport sector this is already the case in the world’s largest market and will become the case everywhere in the coming years. Producers who don’t go EV will die.