energykillian.bsky.social
Power grid decarbonisation with focus on how carbon accounting, electricity markets, policy, PPAs and clean energy demand can drive grid decarb. CEO of NGO EnergyTag. Energy engineer and electro-intensive industry background. Irish born, Brussels based.
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Absolutely and the % decrease is remarkable. Just a reminder that despite the great renewable capacity numbers we see a lot , coal still on the risk in absolute terms
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Super interesting, have been following the RTC tenders a bit in India. Also in EU, PPA are becoming more hydrid with single tech solar becoming a very hard sell in markets like Spain this shift is inevitable eventually
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Hope that works not sure what happened above
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www.nrel.gov/docs/fy25ost...
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Good point, seems BESS costs are nose diving out of China and even hefty tariffs would still make their assumption look conservative.
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Fair point I was also curious about this. Perhaps a combination of factors such as load growth and other parts of the us not decarbonising as aggressively as CA.
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Great question would love to see the numbers here also. This will come faster than folks think. Check out this project which runs the numbers for the US, up to 90 % clean firm off grid but more for data centres. www.offgridai.us
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System costs around the $6-7k billion mark. What I find super interesting is that the zero emissions 2035 system is only 13.5% more expensive than the baseline case. System decarbonisation is cheap, and this is without counting the enormous societal benefits. www.nrel.gov/docs/fy25ost...
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The evolution of generation by technology across all scenarios shows the inevitable rise of renewables which dominate growth. Gas largely decreases or flatlines, gas ccs increases. Storage also set to grow to support renewable integration. New technologies also will have a role but coal is toast..
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When there is a 2035 100 % emissions reduction constraint, wind squeezes out natural gas much more than under current policies…
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Thanks Danny, as the debate in blue hydrogen still rages here in Europe, having a solid foundation to point to in 45v will be a big help in avoiding the loopholes being pushed by many.
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The greenhouse gas protocol is the carbon accounting rulebook used by almost all companies , it’s being reviewed so we can fix this issue. Otherwise, AI and other load growth can continue to masquerade as clean on paper while being a boon for fossil demand under the hood. End
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We must change electricity accounting so that you can only claim to consumer power that is produced in the same hour and on the same grid as your consumption. So to be 100% Clean you must actually do all the work needed (renewables, storage, demand response etc)….
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Which allow a consumer (e.g data centre) to claim to consumer zero carbon from a different grid produced any time of year. So yes, you can be “solar power all night”, defying the basics of sunset and sunrise. Not good enough. To solve this …
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Could not agree more. Fast and decision relevant research with 100s millions of tons and dollars on the line. And great communication of work to broader audience to avoid it getting lost in obscurity like too much valuable research.
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Agree on above, I wonder also to what extent is the capture rates of solar falling fast over the last few years contributing? Maybe a need for more focus on solar + storage PPAs and auction mechanisms that build system integration in. gemenergyanalytics.substack.com/p/solar-capt...
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Don't hesitate!
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Great! very happy to connect on this stuff as you wish, I used to work as a power buyer in heavy industry and now working on 24/7 CFE which also tackles this hedging issue… zero lab have done some of best modelling on system benefits of 24/7 i see you are going there soon !
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Nice! looking forward to following that work, I worked on this study on firming value of PPAs in Europe that was done by Pexapark, who are PPA advisors in EU, could be of interest! www.eurelectric.org/wp-content/u...
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have been doing quite a lot of thinking about this in the EU context, as PPA price is not PPA value, it's hedging value depending on the profile etc... I would say that today renewable PPAs are insuitable products for electro-intensive industry, but if the profile issue can be managed could change!
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Super interesting, have you looked at how consumers can hedge their electricity pricess with PPAs ? And also providing hedge for producer of course… in particular potential of firmed PPA which don’t pass profile risk to consumers making imperfect consumer hedges today
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Awesome! That is what this is all about, I have been interacting with some of the folks thinking about this topic most, we have a framework but not all the answers yet, reach out if you have any more questions [email protected]
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Point I am trying to make is that Germany (like other countries) has a lot of investment yet to do to electrify end uses, build grids and the clean flexiblity options to wean itself off gas in the long run. And it seems germany has the financial clout to do this.
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Regarding LME, these are based on short-run marginal emissions signals, and are not suitable for incentivising the right type of long-run behaviour of the entire system (as they focus on the margin by nature). Check out here for more: www.electricitymaps.com/blog/margina...
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See a practical applications from Quinbrook here: energytag.org/projects/hou...
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Our thinking is based on a purely energy matching approach, in the same hour and grid. So when battery is charging it can be thought of like a consumer of hourly EACs and when it is discharging at it can become a generated of hourly EACs (after accounting for losses and attribute allocation)
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So consequential is useful for informing decisions, but very tricky to do in practice. When thinking of carbon accounting, as with financial accounting, verification of observed facts is essential. Therefore, using attributional accounting, based on observable emissions is more suitable for scope 2.
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The say " In theory, selecting actions based on their impact is the optimal way for an organization to maximize its
objectives. In practice, however, consequential analysis is constrained by the quality of the
estimates it can bring to bear." (2/3)