Phew! What a wild day of missile monitoring! But I think the facts are converging on a pretty clear picture of what Russia launched and what it means. Short 🧵 - ThreadSky

gbrumfiel.bsky.social • 99 days ago

Phew! What a wild day of missile monitoring! But I think the facts are converging on a pretty clear picture of what Russia launched and what it means.

Short 🧵

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gbrumfiel.bsky.social•99 days ago

OK, so first off, what Putin said:

✅ Russia launched a medium (more on this shortly) ranged “ballistic missile with a non-nuclear hypersonic warhead”.

✅ The missile was code-named "Oreshnik" (Hazel).

✅ The strike was on a Ukrainian missile-production facility in Dnepropetrovsk.

minerva1.bsky.social•99 days ago

Damn. Putin looks like he hasn’t slept in a week.

drblckny.bsky.social•99 days ago

nice thread but there's no such a thing as "Dnepropetrovsk". The city is called Dnipro

gbrumfiel.bsky.social•99 days ago

Now for what US says:

✅ Russia launched an INTERMEDIATE ranged ballistic missile.

✅The missile was "experimental".

✅Russia notified the US of the launch shortly before it happened via the National and Nuclear Risk Reduction Center--a hotline used to warn of ballistic missile tests.

gbrumfiel.bsky.social•99 days ago

Still unconfirmed video of the strike supports both of these statements:

✅The high angle of attack (near vertical) suggests warheads coming in from space on a very lofted ballistic trajectory.

✅The six bursts suggest a system that is MIRVed... something typically seen with IRBMs and ICBMs.

gbrumfiel.bsky.social•99 days ago

So is it an Intermediate Range Missile? Or a MEDIUM-range missile?

Lots of confusion today, but it may not matter...

gbrumfiel.bsky.social•99 days ago

Because the chief suspect in the arms control community is a missile called the RS-26.

The RS-26 was tested in the mid 2010s as an ICBM with a single warhead... BUT when it was loaded up with multiple warheads, it travelled closer to MRBM/IRBM distances.

gbrumfiel.bsky.social•99 days ago

In fact, the RS-26 can be pretty much whatever kind of missile you want it to be. Just depends how many warheads it carries.

The more it carries, the shorter distance it can travel.

(Source: https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/ss-x-31-rs-26-rubezh/)

nadinbrzezinski.bsky.social•99 days ago

Shorter. Russia has been launching possible nuclear carriers since the beginning of this madness they are trying to scare us

motown.bsky.social•98 days ago

ooooooooh, I'm so scared

johncsorensen.bsky.social•98 days ago

Very helpful thread. Do you think it was an intentionally escalatory choice to use an IRBM, or simply “we are short on everything, how about we throw that thing that’s been sitting on the shelf since 2015?” Or both? Maybe not escalatory but threatening? And yes, the good news is the phone worked…

gbrumfiel.bsky.social•98 days ago

No, this is not a weapon you'd use b/c you'd run out of other weapons. It's too expensive, they have very few numbers, and it does run risks (hence the phone). There might be SOME argument that it's more able to avoid air defenses because of its high speed...

But my view is this is all signaling.

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